Will the U.S. Raise Interest Rates This Year?

U.S. interest rates have a major impact on the loonie. Here are opinions from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS), Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO)(NYSE:BMO), and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX:CM)(NYSE:CM).

| More on:
The Motley Fool

The Bank of Canada’s key lending rate stands at 0.5% after it cut the figure twice earlier this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. raised rates to 0.5% last December.

That’s bad news for the loonie.

Typically, currencies with higher interest rates tend to have stronger values versus those with lower borrowing rates. If the current situation continues, it will be nearly impossible for the Canadian dollar to maintain any semblance of strength.

But will current conditions actually continue?

Over the summer Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) analyst Jan Hatzius said that “The chance of a rate hike by year-end is 80%.” His new report believed that the latest payroll report was “just enough” for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates in September.

Still, North American stock markets were up on September 20, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve started a two-day meeting. CTV News reported that “Investors don’t expect the Fed to raise interest rates, but they will be keeping an eye on its plans for the rest of the year.”

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX:CM)(NYSE:CM), also does not think the Fed will hike interest rates or even imply that it might given “the recent string of soft data.” GDP growth averaged just 1% in the first half of the year with the manufacturing and service sectors showing contractions in August.

“We had a weak first half, then a month or two of better data and now a month of softer data. Have we put the soft data from the start of the year clearly behind us? I would have to say no,” Shenfeld said. “Having so many swings and misses, it behooves you to stay silent now.”

“The conditions for a rate hike are simply not there yet,” agrees Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO)(NYSE:BMO). “The August data have nearly run the table to the disappointing side.”

It seems that it’s becoming less and less likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this month. That’s likely the reason behind the loonie approaching US$0.80 versus the U.S. dollar.

But a surprise hike can’t be ruled out.

Economists at both Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS) and BNP Paribas SA, for example, believe the Fed will lift rates.

“While market-implied probabilities say a rate hike is completely off the table, our reading of the situation suggests a much closer call,” said Michael Gapen, the chief U.S. economist at Barclays. “We are not crazy. At least we don’t think we are. We believe the outlook, on balance, has evolved in a manner that clears the Fed’s stated threshold for action.”

The loonie will surely sway in one direction after a U.S. Fed decision is made. What that decision will be is highly uncertain—even the experts don’t know.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Ryan Vanzo has no position in any stocks mentioned.

More on Bank Stocks

Question marks in a pile
Bank Stocks

Should You Buy Canadian Western Bank for its 4.8% Dividend Yield?

Down 35% from all-time highs, Canadian Western Bank offers a tasty dividend yield of 4.8%. Is the TSX bank stock…

Read more »

analyze data
Bank Stocks

The Average Canadian Stock Investor Owns This 1 Stock: Do You?

This Canadian stock has about 49% ownership by the public, and with growth and dividends to consider, it's a top…

Read more »

falling red arrow and lifting
Stocks for Beginners

1 Dividend Stock Down 18% to Buy Right Now

CIBC (TSX:CM) is a strong dividend stock investors should certainly consider not just for passive income, but future growth as…

Read more »

edit Business accounting concept, Business man using calculator with computer laptop, budget and loan paper in office.
Tech Stocks

Forget TD Stock: 2 Tech Stocks to Buy Instead

TD remains a solid income stock but two outperforming tech stocks are better buys for their strong growth and upside…

Read more »

Question marks in a pile
Bank Stocks

Where Will Royal Bank of Canada Stock Be in 5 Years?

Royal Bank's continued focus on a strong capital position plus its acquisition of HSBC will likely ensure prosperous times ahead.

Read more »

Payday ringed on a calendar
Bank Stocks

How to Build a Bulletproof Monthly Passive-Income Portfolio With Just $10,000 and TD Stock

TD (TSX:TD) stock has been a poor performer over the last few years, but could be a big passive-income winner…

Read more »

Man considering whether to sell or buy
Bank Stocks

Is RBC Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Shares of Royal Bank of Canada have delivered game-changing returns to shareholders in the last two decades. Is RBC stock…

Read more »

Dice engraved with the words buy and sell
Bank Stocks

Is Scotiabank (BNS) Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Let's dive into whether the Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS) remains a solid buy or if it's more of a…

Read more »