The TSX is experiencing greater volatility in 2026 than in 2025 amid tariff-driven headwinds. After posting an all-time high record close of 34,541.30 on March 2, Canada’s main stock index lost steam, breaking the momentum carried over from a banner year. A military conflict heightens market unpredictability more than trade disputes.
While the broad market is down 1.25% year-to-date (YTD) after a long stretch in positive territory, select stocks continue to outperform amid the war anxiety. Total Energy Services (TSX: TOT), Headwater Exploration (TSX: HWX), and Trican Well Service (TSX: TCW) are sending powerful buy signals with their market-beating returns.
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Momentum leader
Energy (+37.5% year to date, or YTD) is the top-performing sector thus far in 2026, while Total Energy Services (+48% YTD) is the momentum leader. This 803.5 million energy services company, through its business units, provide equipment and various services to the domestic and international marketplace. The continued high demand for compression and process equipment in North America is a growth driver.
Management maintains a favourable business following record results last year and a strong financial position entering 2026. The positive working capital at year-end was $108 million of positive working capital. Also, for the first time since a major acquisition in 2017, cash exceeded bank debt ($49.6 million versus $4.6 million).
The full-year 2025 results are reflected in the stock’s performance. Revenue and net income increased 17% and 22% to $1.1 billion and $74.3 million compared with 2024. Total Energy intends to finance its Board-approved 2026 capital budget of $87.4 million with cash on hand and cash flow.
TOT trades at $22.05 per share and pays a 2.18% dividend. The quarterly payouts have been consistent since Q1 2010.
Sustainable asset base
Like Total Energy Services, Headwater Exploration is a stable energy play in 2026. At $12.79 per share, the mid-cap stock is up 36.5% YTD. If you invest today, HWX pays an attractive 3.44% dividend. The $3 billion company is debt-free and boasts a sustainable asset base with growing free cash flow (FCF), even at flat oil prices or when West Texas Intermediate oil prices fluctuate.
In 2025, the average production reached a record 22,776 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), an 12% year-over-year increase. Net income, however, declined 19% to $153.2 million versus 2024. Still, Headwater commits to maximizing shareholder returns by balancing growth and organic expansion.
Critical services
Trican Well Service is worthy of consideration for its critical role in Western Canada’s oil and gas service industry. The $1.55 billion provider of well-servicing equipment and solutions is also the country’s largest pressure pumping service company.
In Q4 2025, Trican’s revenue rose 17% year over year to $322.7 million, notwithstanding the challenging oil pricing environment in the back half of 2025. For the full year, net income increased 2% to $112.2 million. Performance-wise, TCW feels no price pressure. At $7.35 per share, current investors enjoy a +24.7% market-beating return on top of the 2.93% dividend.
Buy-and-hold candidates
Total Energy Services, Headwater Exploration, and Trican Well Service have so far shown resilience against geopolitical shocks in 2026. All three stand out as buy-and-hold candidates for dividend stability and defensive pricing power.
