Restaurant Brands International Inc. Took Some Big Strides in 2016

With less than a month left in the year, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (TSX:QSR)(NYSE:QSR) is up 27% year-to-date and looking to finish 2016 with a bang.

| More on:
The Motley Fool

It’s customary at this time of year for investors to look back on their wins and losses over the past 12 months to identify anything they could have done differently to positively benefit their investment portfolios.

In the case of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (TSX:QSR)(NYSE:QSR), whose stock is up almost 30% with the end of the year close at hand, it’s not just a matter of chalking up a victory in 2016, but understanding why this year has been so fruitful for both the company and its stock.

These four things help explain why.

System-wide sales growth

You can only cut costs so far. Ultimately, successful businesses grow the top line. In the case of Restaurant Brands International, it grew system-wide sales in the third quarter ended September 30 by 4.8% at Tim Hortons and 7% at Burger King.

For the first nine months of the year, Tim Hortons and Burger King grew system-wide sales 6.1% and 7.5%, respectively. Annually, the two brands generate more than US$24 billion in system-wide sales—almost 100% of it through franchises.

Comparable-store sales growth

By opening new restaurants—through the first nine months of the year Tim Hortons and Burger King opened 79 and 240 restaurants, respectively—you’re definitely going to grow system-wide sales for a time.

However, it’s the sales growth of stores open more than 13 months that drives any restaurant brand in the long term. Through Q3, Tim Hortons and Burger King grew comps by 3.3% and 2.2%, respectively. While both brands have seen some deterioration in comparable-store sales growth, 2016’s numbers are still very healthy.

Expenses

If you can grow the top line while also reducing the cost of those sales, you’re half way to increasing the bottom line. Restaurant Brands International managed to lower its cost of sales in the first nine months of the year by US$75.6 million, or 5.6%.

The second part of the cost-cutting equation is selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses. Lower those along with your cost of sales, and your bottom line is definitely looking up. Through Q3 2016, Restaurant Brands International lowered its SG&A expenses by US$88.8 million, or 28%.

Together, those two major expenses have been lowered by $164.4 million, or 10% of its overall revenues. A couple more years doing this, and Restaurant Brands International’s bottom line will look much rosier indeed.

Free cash flow 

In the course of 24 months, Restaurant Brands International has become a cash flow juggernaut, increasing free cash flow five-fold to more than US$1 billion—the currency with which it will repay its heavy net debt, which stands at US$7.7 billion.

By merging the two businesses, it suddenly had US$4.1 billion in revenue flowing into its coffers, not US$1.2 billion, as was the case prior to Burger King buying Tim Hortons.

Going forward, it will be a lot tougher to increase free cash flow without lowering costs. Fortunately for investors, that is 3G Capital’s specialty.

Adjusted EBITDA

It’s no coincidence that Restaurant Brands International increased adjusted EBITDA (excludes non-cash share-based compensation and income, and losses from equity investments, etc.) by US$152.2 million, or 12.4% through the first nine months of the year, given its work on the expenses portion of the income statement.

Share prices follow earnings. When profits are increasing, generally, so too are share prices. The 12.4% increase helps explains the performance of QSR stock in 2016.

Another metric that can explain a stock’s success is the rate at which it converts income (adjusted EBITDA) into free cash flow. In the first nine months of 2016, it turned 66% of its income into free cash flow—four percentage points lower than a year earlier.

Don’t be alarmed. It’s still converting two-thirds of its income into free cash flow, which will definitely come in handy to pay down its debt.

Bottom line

Proud Canadians will be happy to know that Tim Hortons did a better job growing profits in 2016 than Burger King. However, Burger King generated more profits from every dollar of revenue. In 2017, Restaurant Brands International will try to narrow that gap.

All in all, however, it’s been a very successful year.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Will Ashworth has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC.

More on Investing

thinking
Dividend Stocks

Should You Buy BCE Stock for its 8.6% Dividend Yield?

Down over 20% from all-time highs, BCE stock offers you a tasty dividend yield in 2024. But is the TSX…

Read more »

grow dividends
Tech Stocks

Why Nuvei Stock Jumped 26% on Monday

Nuvei (TSX:NVEI) stock saw shares surge today as the company confirmed it's in talks to go private through a buyout.

Read more »

consider the options
Investing

Better Buy for the Dividend: Enbridge or Nutrien?

Enbridge (TSX:ENB) and Nutrien (TSX:ENB) are great dividend plays for new investors going into April.

Read more »

Gold bars
Stocks for Beginners

TSX Materials in March 2024: The Best Stock to Buy Right Now

Materials have been quite volatile, though the price of gold has surged to all-time highs. That makes this stock a…

Read more »

grow dividends
Dividend Stocks

How Long Would It Take to Turn $20,000 Into $100,000 With TSX Dividend Stocks?

Here's how high-quality TSX dividend stocks and the power of compound interest can help grow your investments by 400% or…

Read more »

Happy diverse people together in the park
Tech Stocks

A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Stocks

Canadian tech companies like Kinaxis (TSX:KXS) are doing big things in AI.

Read more »

Paper airplanes flying on blue sky with form of growing graph
Dividend Stocks

2 Soaring Stocks I’d Buy Now With No Hesitation

These two stocks may be the most expensive on the market, but they're high for a reason! And I'm still…

Read more »

Arrowings ascending on a chalkboard
Investing

This Canadian Blue Chip Is Trouncing TSX Returns, and It Still Has Room to Run

Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX:ATD) stock looks quite frothy heading into earnings, but there may still be upside.

Read more »