It’s no secret that the Trump trade war has created a tonne of uncertainty for Canadian stocks, and Nutrien (TSX: NTR) is one of the biggest names to consider as investors weigh what comes next.
As most investors know, Nutrien is a roughly $45 billion company that supplies the fertilizer farmers need to grow crops, putting it right in the middle of questions about agricultural costs, food production and where the U.S. buys essential products.
However, despite all the headline noise about how Nutrien could be impacted today, it’s far more important for investors to understand how these developments could affect its long-term potential.
After all, Nutrien has spent years building a vertically integrated business that spans from producing fertilizer to supplying farmers directly, with operations and customers across several major agricultural markets.
So, if you’re wondering whether Nutrien is still a buy in the Trump trade war, here’s why I think its broader business deserves a closer look.
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Why Nutrien’s global business gives it an advantage
The U.S. accounted for roughly 61% of Nutrien’s sales last year across its retail and fertilizer businesses. So, when it comes to its potash business specifically, the biggest thing for investors to watch is whether American buyers start sourcing significantly more from other countries.
For example, President Trump said in September that the U.S. was working on a deal to buy potash from Belarus for less than it pays Canada, although he clarified the next day that the U.S. would still buy from Canada. Regardless, shipping fertilizer over longer distances adds costs, which can make competing with established Canadian suppliers considerably harder.
That’s part of what makes Nutrien’s existing operations so valuable, because it already has major potash mines, fertilizer plants and a distribution network connecting its production with customers.
Furthermore, it’s vertically integrated, producing potash, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers while also distributing products and selling fertilizer, seeds, crop protection products and services directly to farmers through its retail business.
That gives Nutrien several ways to earn money from the same industry, while its infrastructure and relationships with farmers help it serve those customers efficiently and sell more products over time.
Plus, its retail operations serve farmers in North America, South America and Australia, while its products and services reached customers in more than 50 countries last year.
That global reach helps to diversify some of its risks and gives it opportunities to grow alongside demand in several markets, while its retail business provides a steadier source of earnings alongside fertilizer production.
Why I’d still consider buying Nutrien stock
Another reason Nutrien remains compelling is that it continues improving the business and finding ways to operate more efficiently, even while trade policy remains unpredictable.
For example, in 2025, Nutrien mined 49% of its potash ore using automation, more than double the proportion in 2023.
That’s important in a commodity business because keeping costs low helps Nutrien remain competitive as fertilizer prices change, while giving it more potential to generate cash from its existing assets.
Furthermore, the business continues to demonstrate why those assets are so valuable. In the first half of 2026, for example, its operating cash flow increased by 12%, and Nutrien returned US$848 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Its potash sales also reached a first-half record, supported by strong offshore demand.
So, with the stock trading at roughly 13.4 times forward earnings and offering a dividend yield of around 3.3%, its valuation looks reasonable for a business with established operations, long-term growth potential and the size and scale to be a core portfolio holding.
