The new special allowance is to come into effect in December 2019. The quantity of the oil that companies will be allowed to produce in December is set at 3.81 million barrels — up from 3.56 million barrels a day when the program first started in January.

Curtailment relief might signal a time to buy

Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ)(NYSE:CNQ) is one of the largest oil companies in Canada to participate in talks to purchase the crude-by-rail contracts currently held by the Albertan government.

Tim McKay, president of CNQ, stated recently that Canadian Natural is still in talks with the Alberta government about purchasing crude-by-rail contracts signed by the previous NDP government with railroad companies. “The terms are complex, and it’s difficult to predict whether the company will take part,” McKay said.

Shipping more crude by rail is seen as critical for Canadian oil producers due to congested pipelines that forced Alberta to order the mandatory oil curtailments.

The challenge is that oil production from Alberta exceeds pipeline takeaway capacity, and there have been multi-year delays to all active pipeline proposals out of the province, including the federally owned Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, TC Energy’s Keystone XL pipeline, and Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline.

The bottom line

CNQ has responded well to the curtailment situation in Canada. McKay also recently stated that Canadian Natural identified 30,000-50,000 barrels per day of oil production that can be turned on or off to maximize output under curtailment.

CNQ credited its “curtailment optimization strategy” for posting the upstream output of 1.18 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, up 15% from the second quarter and 11% over a year ago, despite continuing oil production curtailments imposed by the Albertan government starting last January.

Even if CNQ cannot reach an agreement on purchasing crude-by-rail contracts, the company is showing strong performance in the current situation.

“Our ability to leverage our competitive advantages is reflected in our third quarter where we delivered strong and increasing free cash flow, significantly lower operating costs and production growth per share up an impressive 14% (from third quarter 2018), all in a production-controlled environment,” executive vice-chairman Steve Laut told on a conference call with financial analysts.

CNQ is comfortable that most or all its production will be transported effectively by incremental increases in pipeline export capacity going into 2020. Canadian Natural Resources also boasts a 19-year record of dividend growth at a compound annual rate of 21%. The company’s current cheap valuation means that investors can lock in a 4.5% dividend yield — a 61% premium over the company’s long-term average yield.

Recent Q3 2019 earnings reported record quarterly adjusted funds flow of $2.9 billion and free cash flow of $1.9 billion.

This surplus free cash will be used to buy back shares, strengthen the balance sheet, and increase the dividend. Canadian Natural Resources provides an opportunity to buy a great company at a good price and lock in an attractive and growing dividend, and if a deal is negotiated to increase production and ship the product by rail, then all the better.

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In a changing market, go with a global leader

A very wise financial master once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” That statement surely applies to the cannabis market in general. However, nothing is ever simple.

There are serious problems with the marijuana market, and it will take some time to deal with those problems. But then again, most of these problems have been factored into ACB stock. Even a small amount of good news could easily spark a rally. In terms of a quick profit on Aurora, the oversold condition is worth looking at with caution.

Something to consider with your caution: Aurora Cannabis’s multiyear string of acquisitions has put the company on track to boast the largest production capacity in the entire cannabis industry. More than any of its rivals, Aurora has bet on a major expansion in the global cannabis market.

The facts suggest that there is little chance that the cannabis industry is going to implode on itself, at least from a long-term perspective. If someone wants to invest in the market, Aurora is a favoured cannabis stock for Americans, as an example of the strength of the company.

The bottom line

The cannabis industry is set to be huge. Most analysts believe that by 2030, it will hit the $98 billion mark. Specifically, Aurora Cannabis, with its peak production capacity, is well positioned to benefit from the growth.

The marijuana market appears to be in a “waiting period” now, and producers are running into multiple challenges. Among these difficulties are sufficiently expanding production to meet demand, cutting production costs to match black market prices, developing brands, and overcoming potency constraints.

Aurora is betting big on international markets. Although all top Canadian pot stocks aim to develop an overseas presence, no company has a more diverse presence than Aurora. Including Canada, Aurora has cultivation, export, research, or partnership presences in 25 countries.

At present, Aurora is Canada’s largest producer, which gives the company certain economies of scale. Management has set an annual target of 625,000 kilograms per year by the calendar year 2020.

When it released fourth-quarter results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2019, Aurora stock missed revenue expectations. ACB stock’s net loss came at $2.3 million on net revenue of $98.9 million, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.7 million.

An investor could easily look at Aurora’s market cap of around $3.5 billion compared to its historical revenue and think the stock is drastically overpriced. But if the global medical cannabis market grows relatively close to what Aurora expects, the stock’s current price could look like a bargain in retrospect a few years from now.

The facts suggest that a smart investor can hedge the risk on a short-term investment play on Aurora with the comfort offered by ACB’s strategy to maintain a real global position in the cannabis industry, which makes the long-term investment appealing as well.

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Insider and institutional investment

It makes sense to see at least a little bit of insider ownership. As Charlie Munger, the vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, said once, “Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.”

Total Energy Services is not a large company by global standards. It has a market capitalization of $293 million, which means it wouldn’t have the attention of many institutional investors.

Interestingly, institutional investors currently own approximately 65% of TOT. Insider investment is at a good level, and the inside investors are not selling.

Another positive is that TOT announced on September 30, 2019, that it filed a notice with the Toronto Stock Exchange to undertake a normal-course issuer bid that will expire on October 1, 2020.

Dividend stability, diversity, and value

Dividends are paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. Total Energy Services’s payout ratio is modest at just 43% of profit.

Total Energy Services generated enough free cash flow to afford its dividend. The company paid out just 17% of its free cash flow last year. It is a positive sign to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow, which suggests the dividend is sustainable if earnings don’t drop precipitously.

The company is a good value based on its P/E ratio (11.4 times) compared to the energy services industry average (15.9 times). Its P/E ratio compares well to the Canadian market (13.8 times). Its P/B ratio is 0.5 times compared to the Canadian energy services industry average of 0.8 times. Total Energy Services is forecasted for 10.9% annual earnings growth.

Total Energy Services. provides equipment and expertise for drilling, completion, production, transportation, oil and gas process equipment, and natural gas compression needs.

An aggressively pro-energy party has come to power in Alberta, and overall production in the country is around five million barrels per day, making Canada the world’s fourth-largest producer.

Millions of barrels of crude remain in storage because of stubborn delays in pipeline expansion caused by legal challenges from environmental and Indigenous groups. These problems are part of why the Alberta government curtailed crude production to prop up Canadian oil prices.

Canada’s energy is on sale. The question is whether this is a temporary sale or a permanent loss. Diversity will allow TOT to continue to generate enough profit and cash flow to support a healthy dividend and to thrive in a difficult sector until the industry, now largely in the hands of domestic producers, works through the issues at hand, including this year’s federal election.

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The retailer, known for its fashion-forward clothes and smart branding techniques, has an aggressive strategy in place to stay ahead of the competition.

E-commerce and social media influence is key

The Aritzia brand, for over 30 years, has grown organically almost entirely through word of mouth, and the expansion of its physical presence in the market. Aritzia was fashionably late to internet retailing, but it has played catch up very well.

The “Meghan Markle” effect has helped Aritzia profit to climb to its 19th straight quarter of growth. Aritzia coats worn by the duchess of Sussex tend to sell out immediately. But it is more than just the duchess; it is about “influencer” marketing.

Influencer marketing has been on the rise for years, becoming a key part of many retailers’ marketing budgets. Aritzia CEO Brian Hill has even cited “celebrity influencers” — including Hailey Bieber, Gigi Hadid, Bella Hadid, Kaia Gerber, and Kendall Jenner — on quarterly conference calls with analysts.

When Kendall Jenner shared a photo to her 100 million Instagram followers of her wearing a red $250 Super Puff coat, it stirred an online frenzy. It was the Instagram post that spurred countless memes — and made an Aritzia coat the must-have item of the season.

Hill has been quoted as saying, “You’re going to get a certain amount of influencers wearing your products organically (Markle), but if you want to push something and get specific about a product, you’ll have to end up going with some paid influencers at some time (Jenner).”

Aritzia’s strategic fiscal first-quarter achievements were impressive and aligned very closely with the influencer marketing strategy:

• It’s expanded the boutique network with one new boutique opening (Hudson Yards in Manhattan) and one boutique re-positioning (Mapleview in Greater Toronto);
• It’s achieved significant e-commerce growth, driven by the growing strength of the brand;
• It’s built momentum in social media and influencer marketing programs, further expanding brand awareness, particularly in the U.S., where revenue increased by 38.1%; and
• It’s entered a strategic partnership with SAP to implement an integrated and expansive digital client experience platform.

The partnership with SAP shows a strong investment commitment utilizing the best technological advancements in the digital realm, which is crucial for Aritzia’s success.

The double-edged sword

Aritzia’s retail stores in New York must grow reasonably in number and continue to be successful.

The death of the retail industry may have been greatly exaggerated, but that doesn’t mean the industry isn’t continuing to go through major disruptive and fundamental changes.

Aritzia embraces the challenges of both the retail spaces and digital omnichannel concepts with equal tenacity.

Hudson Yards is the largest private real estate development in the history of the United States. Located on the west side of Manhattan, it includes more than 18 million sq. ft. of residential space, offices, restaurants, hotels, shops, and public open space.

Quoting from Aritzia’s webspace, here is the announcement for their recent New York store opening:

“Our latest women’s boutique in NYC is now open at Hudson Yards — a brand new commercial and residential space in the heart of the city’s West Side. This women’s clothing boutique in the Manhattan neighborhood spans more than 6,100 sq. ft., showcasing all your favorite brands, including Wilfred, Babaton, Tna, Denim Forum and more.”

Aritzia’s announcement suggests something I have not mentioned yet in clear definition: branding. Aritzia has impressive branding strengths and the smarts to be sure all the underpinnings are in place to keep the brands strong, evolving, and in continuous stock online and in the brick-and-mortar stores.

Aritzia is a top retail stock. Aritzia’s financials and momentum suggest it is an undervalued stock. The reason it may be undervalued is that the stock market keeps thinking the retail sector is always close to doom.

The market has not figured out Aritzia yet. The market also has not figured out the new retail/digital world. Aritzia looks as if it has figured it all out.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% to $35.4 million in Q1 2020 from $28.4 million in Q1 2019. Additionally, the company had an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%.

These positive financial results can be attributed to the company gaining significant e-commerce growth that was driven by the growing strength of Aritzia’s brand, in addition to the six new stores and three expanded stores opened in the quarter.

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One of the top five clean tech companies to consider

Questor Technology (TSXV:QST) fits the growth model. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Questor has a trained workforce who provide specialized waste gas incineration products and services that may be required for the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves.

Questor has some impressive financials. Over the last three years, Questor Technology has grown earnings per share at an impressive rate. Growth over the last year soared, reflected by earnings per share rising from $0.21 to $0.29. That’s an impressive gain of 39%.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. On the one hand, Questor Technology’s EBIT margins fell over the last year, but on the other hand, revenue grew. So, if EBIT margins can stabilize, this top-line growth should pay off for shareholders.

Questor has a flawless balance sheet with a solid track record. The stock is a good value based on expected growth next year. QST is currently undervalued with a 50% discount to future cash flow value.

For the first two quarters of 2019, here are some respectable results:

• Revenue increased $3.4 million (29%) during the six months ending June 30, 2019, versus the same period of 2018. Earnings increased $0.5 million (13.4%) during the six months ending June 30, 2019 versus the same period of 2018.
• Revenue from incinerators rentals increased $1.5 million (41%) from $7.7 million to $9.2 million. The increased customer base in North Dakota is the primary driver of the rental revenue increase. Equipment sales increased $1.7 million (65%) from $2.7 million to $4.4 million.
• Gross profit increased by $1.9 million (26%) as result of higher rental activity and increased equipment sales during the first two quarters, and the company achieved certain contract milestones and recognized $3.4 million of sales revenue related to the Mexico contract previously announced on January 7, 2019.

The bottom line

There is risk involved in the stock, even with the solid financial picture.

Unfortunately, there has been more insider selling of Questor stock than buying in the last three months. But since QST is profitable and growing, this is not necessarily a cause for alarm. Insider ownership isn’t particularly high, which is somewhat disconcerting.

The insider trading situation seems to be the main downside.

Questor’s market cap is just over $117 million. There is a lot of room to run in this space, and QST looks like a company positioned to take advantage. With a return on equity currently at 29.57% compared to the industry at 10.94% and the sector at 11.55%, things look positive.

Government restrictions will be a huge driving force for the clean tech industry. QST does the lion’s share of its business in the United States and, depending on which way the wind blows in the next election, a carbon tax for Americans to deal with seems trivial compared to the “Green New Deal.”

Canada is facing challenges with its current regulatory efforts. However, one thing is certain: there will continue to be efforts around the globe to curtail humankind’s impact on the environment.

Fossil fuel companies will not suddenly disappear, and companies that know how to run a “clean” fiscal ship will take advantage of the obvious need for efficient processing of energy that improves our air quality at the same time.

QST runs a tight ship financially. Insiders own 19% of the company, worth about $25 million, which indicates moderate alignment between management and smaller shareholders. The insider sales in the last three months hopefully will not continue.

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Canada’s Atlantic lobster is its most valuable and best-known seafood export

China imposed tariffs of 25% on U.S. seafood in retaliation for tariffs imposed on Chinese exports by the Trump administration. Since that imposition, seafood imports from the United States have fallen off the table.

China has opened the door to the rest of the world by lowering tariffs with other countries — even as its trade war with the U.S. continues to drag on. The tariff problem is a very good situation for Canada. The reality is that the Nova Scotia lobster is as equally coveted as the Maine lobster once was. The cold waters in both parts of the world produce the same wonderful sea treats.

There are several interesting aspects to this situation. The changing climate appears to be pushing lobster further north. According to certain reports, two decades ago the centre of the American population of lobster was south of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Ten years later, it was in the south of the Gulf of Maine. Reportedly, today the centre is in the north of the Gulf of Maine, and the population is rising in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Canada may see more plentiful harvests of lobster in the future, but the question is, will they be able to meet demand? One company that has taken action to secure supply is Premium Brands Holdings (TSX:PBH).

Premium acquired Ready Seafood in Portland, Maine, in September as part of a massive $753 million, 12-transaction acquisition spree in 2018. Ready came with three production facilities and handled 15 million pounds of lobster annually, generating $129 million in annual revenue based on reports.

An intelligent investor might say that Premium went acquisition crazy in 2018. That statement might be an understatement. The acquisition of Ready brought Premium’s seafood assets to more than $400 million in annual sales. The Canadian company could grow its annual seafood revenue to $1 billion in the future.

Growing that quickly is possible because Premium remains in a strong position of liquidity. The company could still make more buys. The CFO noted that Premium had almost $220 million of unutilized capacity on its credit facilities in the fourth-quarter call of 2018.

A long-term compounder

Premium Brands has a long history of success. The company’s major growth initiatives in seafood, protein, and sandwiches are on or ahead of plan and are expected to result in accelerated growth in the second half of the year

After the second quarter of 2019, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.525 per share, which is excellent. The stock market has not yet realized Premium’s capability to increase dividend income to investors in the coming years. Now is the time to analyze and predict that capability. The 2019 second-quarter numbers on this company are impressive.

Premium posted record revenue of $945.4 million, representing a 24.1%, or $183.9 million, increase as compared to the second quarter of 2018.

Record adjusted EBITDA of $88.3 million, representing a 19%, or $14.1 million, increase as compared to $74.2 million in the second quarter of 2018. After normalizing for the adoption of the new IFRS-16 accounting standard and unusual transitory challenges relating to weather and the outbreak of African Swine Fever in China, the company’s adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2019 is $90.1 million

With an aggressive acquisition strategy and the ability to finance that direction, Premium could easily retain and strengthen its powerful position in the space it occupies. The trade war will only help the company. More important than the trade war is something significant to both Premium and Ready — sustainability.

Demand for seafood is growing exponentially. Both companies have a good record on their practices and treatment of the resource and the environment. Sustainable practices should bode well for the new combined company and the stock. Premium is a good “catch” for investors.

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Canada accounts for approximately 40-50% of the world’s known REE reserves

Canada has some of the world’s largest rare earth deposits and expertise in processing them. Canada also has a reputation for technical and contractual reliability and strict environmental standards.

Canada has the clout to exert political leverage and influence to grow this market and stimulate further production domestically as a trusted advocate of the planet. The current climate should stimulate Canadian rare earth companies to seek investment where needed and to increase their research and development efforts.

The largest and most dominating exporter of these products currently is China.  In the 1980s and 1990s, China began a mission to become a global leader in the production of REEs. In 1986, it introduced the National High Technology Research and Development Program. China initiated a long-range plan to utilize its technical talent and resources to take over the market.

The Chinese leadership has long recognized the strategic value of this resource. In 1997, China introduced a second program: the National Basic Research Program of China. This program brought to bear China’s scientific talents in conducting innovative research and succeeded on a grand scale.

Finally, China has two state laboratories and two institutes that focus almost exclusively on REEs. One of several negative aspects of China’s domination in this market is its history of abusing the environment.

The U.S. was once the number one manufacturer of these rare elements. China took the lead due to the U.S. not making development a priority, and because China plays a dirty game.

Now, the U.S. is a major importer of rare earth materials, with demand for compounds and metals worth US$160 million in 2018; that’s up from US$137 million in 2017. The country has classified REEs as critical minerals — a distinction that has come to the fore due to the trade war between the U.S. and China.

An excellent play in this specific situation is Neo Performance Materials (TSX:NEO). The company is a global leader in rare earth material production; it’s number one in the markets for several of its business segments.

Neo Performance Materials supplies advanced materials used in a wide range of technology applications. The company engages in the production, processing, and development of rare earth and zirconium-based engineered materials, as well as rare metals including gallium, indium, rhenium, tantalum, and niobium.

The real deal for REEs

Trade tensions have caught the interest of Canadian rare earth metal explorers who are also looking to position themselves for an expected leap in demand for these metals. This situation creates a real stimulus with these companies and a higher tolerance for risking the expense to ramp up production. Likely, several of the small-cap rare earth companies will seek partnerships or capital-investment assistance to take advantage of the future.

China will continue to be the elephant in the room; however, the United States has a large appetite for these minerals coming from major defence firms and, of course, many large consumer companies. This appetite will keep growing larger, and the products to quench that appetite could very well come from Canadian interests.

The trade war is a reality. It has already lasted over a year, and no immediate end is in sight. Tariff and currency manipulation have taken a toll on global financial markets in varied ways and will continue to do so on a day-to-day basis.

China has ruled the REE market for many years. Now there is a perfect storm in place that will drive production and push customers to find new purchasing options. Investing in rare earth stocks could potentially reduce some of the pain we all may experience from the trade conflicts between the superpowers.

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This interconnectedness can be a result of many factors, including governmental or regime impacts. A predictable example would be the American government. Changes happen every election cycle, and to some degree, the two-party system allows the world to predict what sort of changes to expect.

The current United States administration appears to be very pro space. MAXAR Technologies (TSX:MAXR)(NYSE:MAXR) — the parent company of MDA — made a move to America because a dependable governmental aspect of the U.S.A. is that it is the number one customer in the space industry.

The MAXAR relocation had much to do with that and the benefits of becoming an American company concerning the increased possibility of winning contracts. The international space company brought its global administrative operations to the Denver, Colorado, area after its acquisition of Digital Globe. It also grew its technical force there, which was part of the intent to move to such a vibrant specialized talent market.

The company decided to temporarily move to the mile-high city after locating in San Francisco, which was meant to be temporary. An exhaustive search for a final location led the company to Westminster. The move was great news for Colorado and further cemented the state’s highest ranking in the United States as a monster aerospace employer.

The move has produced tax incentives and other benefits as well as a better position for securing American business. Unfortunately, even with the positive aspects of combining the Canadian company with a massive presence in the United States, 2018 proved to be very challenging. A failed satellite, which was left unstable and unable to collect visual data, caused investors to sell, resulting in a drop of over 50% of the stock’s value. Legal issues around the company inflating assets were soon to follow. All of this made for a very tough year.

MAXAR has not seen better vistas in 2019. The stock is extremely risky due to multiple issues — a legacy division that is consuming cash instead of producing money through support contracts, a growth plan that will require new expertise the company must deliver, a balance sheet that is highly leveraged, and promises to investors and creditors that indicate an enormous capex challenge to launch its signature products.

These challenges are essential considerations. Still, this is a company worth keeping a close eye on. One significant new development is the viable interest NASA has shown towards MAXAR.

On April 8, 2019, MAXAR announced that it’s building a spacecraft bus based on the proven 1300 class platform to be retrofitted by NASA to restore the U.S. government owned Landsat 7 satellite, which is currently in orbit. MAXAR is also working with NASA on plans to carry a NASA pollution sensor on a 1300 class platform spacecraft bus as well. Another unusual situation is the reported European interest in a buyout of MAXAR, which has yet to see fruition.

Earnings per share are $-22.93, the price-to-earnings ratio this year is null, and the price-to-earnings ratio over five years is $25.20. Shares are down -85.28% over 52 weeks. That’s not exactly a rosy picture, right?

But, if MAXAR can vitalize and improve its workforce to bring about focused, innovative efforts with laser-sharp direction on their product creation and expansion, great things could happen. In other words, the stars need to align. That would be something to see and possibly very lucrative.

The Space Race is the new hot market. It requires research and careful consideration. The excitement is brewing because mankind cannot resist the wonder of the possibility of traveling in the Final Frontier.

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