BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX:BB)(NASDAQ:BBRY) has come a long way since late 2013 when John Chen took over as CEO.

At that time BlackBerry was struggling to stay afloat and was suffering heavy losses. Now the company is on much sounder footing, and has a more focused strategy. But the stock price remains stuck around $10. So, that begs the question: what’s the next step?

To help find an answer, we take a look at three scenarios where BlackBerry’s stock takes off.

1. Traction for the software business

Under Mr. Chen’s leadership BlackBerry has dramatically refocused towards software. As part of this shift, he has set a very ambitious goal: US$600 million in software-related revenue in FY2016, including US$100 million from BBM.

Until we heard last quarter’s results, this goal seemed far out of reach. But BlackBerry reported US$137 million in software-related revenue for the first quarter of 2016, which worked out to 157% growth. Now Mr. Chen’s goal seems far more realistic.

To get to US$600 million, BlackBerry still has a long way to go. The company will likely have to sign more intellectual property deals, as it did last quarter. It will probably have to make more acquisitions. BBM will have to show better results. And most importantly, BlackBerry will have to overcome its damaged brand.

2. Some big wins for QNX

QNX may not get much attention in the media, but the operating system is well positioned in the Internet of Things (IoT) marketplace thanks to BlackBerry’s leadership in security.

Thus far, this isn’t a meaningful contributor to revenues. But IoT is set to grow astronomically—Cisco Systems expects 50 billion devices to be connected to the Internet by 2020, quadruple what we saw in 2010.

So, this is more of a long-term opportunity for BlackBerry, but in the meantime it would be a great sign to see some contract wins for QNX. It would signal some continuing momentum in a very fast growing market.

3. A buyout

Mr. Chen has been very adamant that BlackBerry is not for sale. But eventually, BlackBerry will likely get bought out. The reason is very simple: the company has numerous assets and capabilities that would be worth more in another company’s hands.

The best example is BlackBerry’s patent portfolio. There’s also the company’s leadership position in security as well as QNX. So, even if Mr. Chen is unsuccessful in his turnaround efforts, BlackBerry will still be a very attractive target. And if he is successful, BlackBerry’s attractiveness as a takeover target will be that much greater.

That said, BlackBerry remains a very risky stock, so if you’re going to buy it you should only commit a small slice of your savings.

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Fool contributor Benjamin Sinclair has no position in any stocks mentioned.