Canadian Pacific Railway: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Canadian Pacific posts a record fourth quarter.

The Motley Fool

Canadian PacificRailway (TSX: CP)(NYSE: CP), the nation’s second largest railway, just released its Q4 and year-end results, and there were some pleasant surprises.

Q4 2013 has been very good for Canadian Pacific, which has set a new quarterly record of $1.6 billion in revenues,  up 7% from last year. From these revenues, Canadian Pacific made $338 million in adjusted net income ($1.91 per share), a dramatic increase of 49% from Q4 2012.

On the year-end side, the company set another new record with $6.1 billion in revenues, and an adjusted net income of $1.1 billion ($6.42 per diluted share), up 48% from 2012. These are all impressive numbers but how did Canadian Pacific bring all of this to pass?

The oil boom

One of the major contributors to Canadian Pacific’s growth (and that of the entire industry) has been the boom in crude by rail. What was once a small piece of the railroads’ cargo has grown to 25,000 carloads just in the last quarter alone. For all of 2013, Canadian Pacific moved 90,000 carloads of crude, a 68% increase from 2012.

With the continuing growth of crude by rail, Canadian Pacific is expecting the number to grow to at least 210,000 carloads by 2015. This number could skyrocket even higher as energy producers begin expanding crude by rail terminals. Also the fate of the Keystone XL pipeline could also greatly affect the number of cars moved.

The new guy

The driving force behind this turnaround has come from CEO Hunter Harrison, who took the reigns of Canadian Pacific one year ago, after six years running Canadian National (TSX: CNR)(NYSE: CNI). Since taking over Canadian Pacific, 4,750 jobs (85-90% through attrition) have been cut, revenues have hit all-time highs, and brought the adjusted operating ratio to an all-time low of 69.9%.

Even the pension has been turned around from a $721 million deficit in 2012 to a 2013 surplus of $800 million. Despite all these advances, Harrison is still committed to boost earnings another 30% in 2014.

Foolish bottom line

Canadian Pacific’s results announcement pushed the stock to a 52-week high of $171.90 and is up from $116.01 one year ago. Thanks to all the management initiatives taken by the company, issues such increased winter-related costs or an inability to move grain can be mitigated to keep the books growing.

The question is whether these numbers are a one-time stop, or a new regular route. With all the growth the company has experienced, can it maintain this type of growth or will this become a new plateau?

Fool contributor Cameron Conway does not own any shares in the companies mentioned.

More on Investing

chart reflected in eyeglass lenses
Energy Stocks

Is Emera Stock a Buy Before Its Proposed Merger With Canadian Utilities?

A reliable dividend and the prospect of a much larger utility business make Emera stock worth watching before the merger.

Read more »

Senior uses a laptop computer
Dividend Stocks

A 4.9% Dividend Stock I Plan to Hold Long Term: What $5,000 Would Collect

This is a solid utility stock to consider on dips for a long-term portfolio with a focus on growing income.

Read more »

Bank Stocks

I’m Betting My Future on This Canadian Dividend Giant

Given its solid underlying business, consistent dividend payouts, healthy growth prospects, and attractive valuation, Scotiabank would be an excellent long-term…

Read more »

shopper carries paper bags with purchases
Dividend Stocks

Your GIC Pays 3% to 4%: This TSX Stock Pays You Every Month Instead

SmartCentres pays more income than an illustrative GIC, but a modest unit-price decline could erase the first-year advantage.

Read more »

Board Game, Chess, Chess Board, Chess Piece, Hand
Energy Stocks

Cenovus Energy Plans to Buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 Billion: Is the Stock a Steal Before the Deal?

Cenovus is paying $5.7 billion for Athabasca Oil. Here is what the deal means for ATH stock and whether it…

Read more »

the word REIT is an acronym for real estate investment trust
Dividend Stocks

REIT Investing: I’m holding SmartCentres for its 98.1% Occupancy

SmartCentres’ fundamentals remain solid. Besides high occupancy, rental growth and a high-quality tenant base are positives.

Read more »

ETFs can contain investments such as stocks
Dividend Stocks

How to Structure a TFSA With $14,000 for Lifelong Monthly Income

Your $14,000 TFSA can seed tax free monthly income for life. See how to begin a low-cost passive income stream…

Read more »

electrical cord plugs into wall socket for more energy
Energy Stocks

Better Stock to Buy Now: Fortis vs. Hydro One

Let’s compare Fortis and Hydro One to determine which utility stock offers the more compelling investment opportunity amid ongoing macroeconomic…

Read more »