Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD)(NYSE:TD) is widely viewed as a must-have stock, but the Brexit vote has some investors wondering if this is the right time to own the bank.
Let’s take a look at TD to see if it still deserves to be in your portfolio.
Europe risks
The Brexit has unleashed a bloodbath in the European banking sector. Major financial stocks are now trading down more than 25% in the U.K., France, Italy, and even Germany.
Most of the pain has stayed in Europe, but there are concerns the fallout could cross the pond and start to hit the Canadian banks.
TD has some operations in the U.K. and mainland Europe, but for the most part its business is squarely focused on the Canadian and U.S. banking markets.
As a result, the Brexit vote should have limited direct impact on the company’s earnings.
Reliance on retail
TD gets the majority of its revenue from the bread-and-butter retail segment, which includes personal and commercial banking.
In fiscal Q2 2016, the Canadian retail operation contributed 61% of net income, the U.S. retail group added 25%, the company’s U.S.-based TD Ameritrade operation added 5%, and the remaining 9% came from wholesale banking.
Retail banking is considered to be more stable than other activities, such as capital markets, so TD is positioned well to weather the storm.
Risks in Canada
The Brexit is the big focus in international markets, but the Canadian banks also have some challenges at home. Slow economic growth, the oil rout, and a red-hot housing market have pundits concerned a big hit could be on the way.
TD isn’t a significant player in the energy sector. In fact, less than 1% of the company’s total loan book is directly exposed to oil and gas companies.
Regarding housing, TD’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is about $248 billion. That’s no small potatoes, but 53% of the loans are insured and the loan-to-value ratio on the remaining mortgages is 58%. That means home and condo prices would have to pull back significantly before TD takes a meaningful hit.
Should you buy?
TD is probably the safest bet among the big Canadian banks.
I wouldn’t rush in today, but investors with a buy-and-hold strategy might want to consider adding the stock on further weakness.
