The S&P/TSX Composite Index, Canada’s broad stock market gauge, has tumbled sharply since last week after the United States imposed sweeping tariffs on global trading partners, stoking fears of a worldwide recession. However, amid this market turmoil, one Canadian company stands particularly resilient: Cameco (TSX:CCO). Here’s why I’d buy the dip on Cameco stock, stash it in a Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA), and hold through market turbulence.
The 2025 trade war comes at a time when Cameco is churning record results. Cameco reported remarkable 2024 results with a 21% increase in revenue to $3.1 billion and an impressive 73% jump in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to over $1.5 billion. The company achieved record annual production at its Key Lake mill — a remarkable 20.3 million pounds, the highest from any uranium mill worldwide. This operational excellence comes when the global uranium supply faces significant constraints.
I’d be comfortable adding Cameco stock to my long-term-oriented TFSA following its 28% year-to-date drop to trade at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24 and a P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.1, which implies the uranium stock is fairly valued given its earnings growth outlook. Here’s why.
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Cameco nuclear shield: Stock immune to trade wars and recessions
When nations implement tariffs, they prioritize domestic interests over global trade efficiency. This same mindset extends to energy security, where countries increasingly focus on reliable power sources that aren’t vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. But nuclear fuel supplies to reactors are neither flexible nor replaceable at short notice.
Cameco, Canada’s uranium powerhouse, operates in a sector that marches to its own beat, largely insulated from broader economic cycles. The company supplies its uranium and nuclear fuel to a tightly secured long-term contracting market. Its supply volumes will average 28 million pounds per year through 2029, and there isn’t any substitute available for nuclear power reactors that provide critical power base loads to national grids.
The business’s trading volumes will be immune to tariff wars and recessions in the near term. Its supply agreements aren’t dependent on economic conditions — nuclear plants continue operating regardless of recessions.
Check out Cameco’s tariff-proof business model
Why consider Cameco for your TFSA during these uncertain times? Unlike many exporters scrambling to assess tariff impacts, Cameco has already fortified its position. After learning from the 2018 trade tensions, Cameco restructured its contracts to explicitly shift tariff responsibilities to buyers.
As Chief Executive Officer Tim Gitzel noted in a previous earnings call: “We started writing contracts that made it very clear that tariffs belonged in the tax clause.” This strategic foresight means any tariff on Canadian uranium would have “no material impact upon Cameco,” according to company leadership.
Global supply challenges benefit Cameco
Recent geopolitical events have created structural supply challenges. Russia’s uranium export controls have removed substantial portions of global nuclear fuel cycle capacity from Western reach. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer, continues battling production challenges due to sulfuric acid shortages.
These supply constraints arrived precisely when nuclear energy is experiencing a renaissance. Countries worldwide are reversing previous anti-nuclear positions, extending plant lifespans, and announcing new construction projects. As Cameco’s 2024 report noted, “the outlook for nuclear power and nuclear fuel fundamentals is more favourable than it has been for decades.”
Why stash CCO stock in your Tax-Free Savings Account?
The TFSA’s tax advantages make it ideal for investments with strong growth potential. With Cameco’s share price having retreated from recent highs along with the broader market, despite strengthening fundamentals, the current entry point appears attractive for long-term investors.
Cameco’s investment in Westinghouse Electric Company is already showing promise, contributing to adjusted EBITDA growth, while recent developments, including a settlement agreement with Korean partners that establishes a framework for additional technology deployments, further enhance Cameco’s growth prospects.
Investor takeaway
Protective tariffs may reshape global trade patterns and potentially trigger economic slowdowns. However, Cameco’s operation in a critical sector with inelastic demand provides a compelling investment case for your tax-sheltered accounts. The nuclear energy stock represents exactly what prudent investors should seek during uncertain times — a Canadian champion in an industry experiencing structural tailwinds, regardless of broader economic conditions.
