TFI International (TSX: TFII) has long been a favourite among Canadian transportation investors due mainly to its solid fundamentals and impressive track record of delivering returns. But in 2025, TFI stock has taken a sharp detour — falling well over 40% amid shifting economic tides, global trade headwinds, and market-wide volatility. For many Foolish investors, the recent selloff raises an important question of whether this is a rare chance to scoop up a quality stock at a steep discount or a warning sign of deeper trouble ahead.
In this article, we take a closer look at what’s driving TFI stock’s downturn and whether its current price tag reflects a long-term opportunity or a value trap.
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What’s pressuring TFI stock in 2025?
If you don’t know it already, TFI International is a major North American freight and logistics player, running truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), and logistics operations across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico.
After rallying by 43% in the previous two years combined, TFI stock has slipped 44% so far in 2025 to currently trade at $108.64 per share, giving it a market cap of about $9.1 billion. At this market price, it also offers a quarterly dividend with a 2.4% annualized yield.
So, what exactly is going on with TFI stock? Well, its recent sharp pullback could mainly be attributed to a mix of softer demand in the freight space, macroeconomic uncertainty, and a notable slowdown in its LTL and logistics segments.
While TFI’s recent acquisition of Daseke boosted its truckload segment’s top line by a strong 64% YoY (year over year) in the December 2024 quarter, that lift wasn’t enough to offset weakness elsewhere. For example, the company’s LTL segment revenue saw a 13% YoY decline, while logistics slipped by 14%. TFI also had to deal with accident-related expenses in the U.S., which added pressure on its profit margins.
Is TFI stock a buy on the dip?
If you zoom out a bit, TFI’s business isn’t collapsing. It’s adapting. In the latest quarter, TFI’s total revenue rose 5.5% YoY to US$2.1 billion with the help of new acquisitions. Similarly, its free cash flow stayed solid at over US$200 million for the quarter, while the company generated more than US$750 million in free cash flow for the third year in a row — no small feat in this kind of competitive market.
Despite recent challenges, TFI has been actively returning capital to shareholders with the help of share buybacks and dividends. Notably, the company raised its dividend by 13% late last year. It’s also continuing to hunt for strategic acquisitions that can strengthen its network, even as it cuts costs and optimizes operations.
While the recent selloff in TFI stock may look scary on the surface, it also opens up an interesting opportunity for long-term investors. Overall, the company is a profitable, dividend-paying logistics giant that’s adjusting to short-term turbulence while staying focused on long-term growth. If you believe in transportation’s rebound and want to pick up a well-managed player at a steep discount, this might just be your moment.
