TSX Today: Why Canadian Stocks Could Fall in June

If the market is set to drop once more, then invest in a Canadian stock that doesn’t give any reason to worry.

| More on:
a person watches a downward arrow crash through the floor

Source: Getty Images

Markets rarely follow a straight path, and after a stretch of gains, the TSX may be approaching choppier waters in June. With a combination of global and domestic pressures building, Canadian stocks could come under renewed pressure. That doesn’t mean investors need to panic, but it does mean preparation is key. With that in mind, one stock worth a closer look for navigating the storm is Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSX:FFH).

Why the fall?

There are several reasons to believe June could be rough for Canadian equities. First, there’s growing anxiety around global trade. With presidential politics heating up, protectionist talk is gaining ground. Canada, which relies heavily on exports to the U.S., is particularly sensitive to these shifts. Tariff headlines can rattle investor confidence and weigh on Canadian stocks, especially in industrials, manufacturing, and agriculture.

Second, commodity prices have become increasingly volatile. Oil, in particular, has seen sharp price swings due to concerns about global demand and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. With the TSX heavily weighted toward energy producers, any sustained weakness in crude oil could drag down the broader index. Copper and other base metals, which had shown signs of recovery earlier in the year, have also started to dip on slower-than-expected Chinese industrial activity. Materials and mining stocks could feel the heat as global growth expectations are revised downward.

Then there’s interest rate uncertainty. The Bank of Canada has signalled potential rate cuts by mid-year, depending on inflation data, which recently showed a decrease of 1.7% year over year. While rate cuts can boost consumer spending and borrowing, they can also send a message that the economy is weaker than hoped.

Protect your portfolio

So, how can investors shield themselves from a potential pullback on the TSX in June? This is where Fairfax Financial comes in. Fairfax is a diversified holding company with a core business in property and casualty insurance. It also manages a wide-ranging investment portfolio and owns a collection of businesses across multiple industries.

Fairfax is known for its conservative approach to investing and its focus on downside protection. In a world where stocks might falter, that’s exactly the kind of mindset that can help keep a portfolio stable. The company reported strong results in its most recent quarter. For the first quarter of 2025, Fairfax posted net earnings of $945.7 million, or $42.70 per share, driven by solid underwriting and strong investment gains. It reported a combined operating ratio of 94.7%, showing profitability in its insurance business despite the ongoing challenges of catastrophe losses and claims inflation.

Its book value per share rose to $1,080.38, up from $1,059.60 at the end of 2024. That’s a key metric for investors watching how the company builds long-term value. Book value growth, along with strong cash flow from its insurance and investment operations, helps Fairfax fund acquisitions and support shareholder returns. Fairfax’s main appeal is in its capital preservation and growth rather than yield alone.

Bottom line

What makes Fairfax particularly helpful during potential TSX weakness is its flexibility. The company holds over $2.1 billion in cash and marketable securities, giving it the ability to pounce on distressed assets or mispriced stocks when others are forced to sell. In a downturn, that kind of dry powder can create long-term gains. Its leadership team, led by CEO Prem Watsa, has a long track record of taking a cautious but opportunistic approach. That’s especially valuable during market selloffs when panic often overrides logic.

June might not be a repeat of March’s rally. And it doesn’t have to be a disaster to deserve attention, either. Volatility alone can be enough to cause losses for investors who are overexposed or poorly diversified. That’s why stocks like Fairfax, which offer a blend of caution and opportunity, can be valuable tools in any long-term investing strategy.

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Fairfax Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

More on Dividend Stocks

resting in a hammock with eyes closed
Dividend Stocks

Yes, a 3.5% Dividend Yield Is Enough to Generate Massive Passive Income

This “boring” TSX dividend stock has quietly surged, and its next earnings report could change expectations again.

Read more »

Hourglass projecting a dollar sign as shadow
Dividend Stocks

Time to Buy? 1 Dividend Stock Offering a Decent Deal

CN Rail (TSX:CNR) might not be a steal, but it's a great long-term compounder that's nearly guaranteed to grow its…

Read more »

Canadian Red maple leaves seamless wallpaper pattern
Dividend Stocks

TFSA: 4 Canadian Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever

Here's why the TFSA is such a powerful tool for Canadians, and four of the best stocks you can buy…

Read more »

voice-recognition-talking-to-a-smartphone
Dividend Stocks

Got $10,000? Buy This Dividend Stock for $74 in Monthly Passive Income

Telus stock's almost 9% dividend yield is not as risky as it seems, as the company has big plans to…

Read more »

various pizza in boxes in a row for lunch
Dividend Stocks

Bill Ackman is Betting on This TSX Stock – and it’s a Deal Right Now

Bill Ackman has high conviction for Restaurant Brands, which is a solid stock idea for long-term investors to consider buying…

Read more »

House models and one with REIT real estate investment trust.
Dividend Stocks

A Dirt-Cheap Stock to Buy With $1,000 Right Now

This high-quality stock has defensive operations, pays a 4% dividend, and is trading with the lowest valuation it has had…

Read more »

Blocks conceptualizing Canada's Tax Free Savings Account
Dividend Stocks

Got $14,000? Here’s How to Structure a TFSA for Lifelong Monthly Income

Turn a “small” $14,000 TFSA deposit into steady, tax-free monthly cash by picking resilient REITs, not just high yields.

Read more »

dividends can compound over time
Dividend Stocks

Want a 6% Yield? 3 TSX Stocks to Buy Today

These Canadian dividend stocks offering a high yield of at least 6% can strengthen your portfolio’s income-generation capabilities.

Read more »