Despite Canadian and American stock indices trading near all-time highs, there are signs a recession is nearing. The real estate market is cooling, unemployment is rising, and business investments have declined.
If you are worried about a recession in Canada, some quality stocks should remain resilient. Here are four kinds of stock investments to consider owning if the economy weakens further.
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Grocery and essential retailers
Everyone needs groceries and daily goods regardless of a recession or not. Grocery and essential goods providers tend to pass through their costs in price increases, so their earnings can withstand elements like inflation.
Loblaws (TSX: L) and Dollarama (TSX: DOL) are excellent examples of retailers that meet consumer demand at every level of the economic spectrum. Scale and pricing power have allowed these companies to deliver exceptional results in the past five years.
They are up respectively 221% and 287% in that period. Such strong performance has attracted significant investor interest. As a result, these stocks have pricey valuations. They are likely to perform well in tough economic times, but investors have limited margin of safety today.
Grocery-anchored landlords
Another way to play this theme is by owning Loblaws and Dollarama’s landlord. First Capital Real Estate Investment (TSX: FCR.UN) owns and manages 21.9 million square feet of premium located grocery-anchored retail properties in Canada.
Its attractive locations have helped it maintain 97%-plus occupancy and mid-single digit rental rate growth for years. This REIT just reported, and it delivered solid 6% funds from operation per unit growth.
First Cap boasts an impressive portfolio of land and development opportunities. These are barely recognized in the stock price. The REIT trades at a wide discount to its private market value.
FCR.UN also pays a 4.8% dividend yield. This can help offset any stock market turbulence that may result from a recession.
Recession-resilient software
Constellation Software (TSX: CSU) might be one of Canada’s best recession-resilient businesses. It operates over 1,000 niche software businesses around the world. It is the essence of diversification.
Constellation’s companies are entrenched in many industries, sectors, and countries. Its software is crucial to its customers, so it has very little churn, even when the economy weakens.
The great thing is that Constellation can be opportunistic in recessions to accelerate its acquisition-led growth strategy. Tech valuations tend to come down when the economy is challenged. Given it is a forever-owner, it can take a bet on companies that are temporarily beaten-down.
At $4,800 per share, its stock is not cheap by any means. However, if its stock were to pull back to the low $4,000 range, it would likely be a great addition.
Insurance for recessions
Insurance companies tend to be resilient investments through economic cycles. In most regions, people are mandated to own insurance for their vehicles and housing.
Stocks like Intact Financial (TSX: IFC) and Definity Financial (TSX: DFY) have dominated the Canadian market for property and casualty insurance. Over the past five years, they have returned respectively 93% and 163% total returns.
Both are very well-managed businesses and have used acquisitions to grow their scale and reach. They continue to have attractive growth opportunities in the years ahead.
The Foolish takeaway
These are just a few investment ideas to hold if the economy heads towards a recession. Other great areas to invest in for recessions include utilities, energy infrastructure, and information technology.
