Pot stocks really had their moment in the sun in August, with some of the top cannabis producers posting some nice double-digit percentage gains. Of course, a month of strength doesn’t mean a whole lot when you consider the bigger picture. In the grander scheme of things, last month’s rally in pot stocks is a mere drop in the bucket when you consider the nasty longer-term chart. In a five-year chart, you can barely see the blip that is last month’s gains.
And while the cannabis trade has, indeed, gone up in smoke since peaking out many years ago, I think there’s ample value to be had for the dip-buyers who have the courage to step in at these depths. Indeed, the cannabis plays may be so 2018, as investors grew euphoric over the sales growth to be had as Canada legalized cannabis.
As it turned out (and as I predicted amid the cannabis boom), legalization turned into a sell-the-news kind of scenario that saw most pot stock valuations shed a vast majority of their value. Though the selling pressure has been extreme, I think it’s been overdone.
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Can the gains continue for pot stocks after a hot August?
Sure, cannabis will never be as hot as it was around seven or eight years ago. However, I think that some of the more efficient producers can make good on the latest uptick in demand. In any case, the space seems more like a place for cigar-butt investors (or should I say cannabis joint butts) these days.
And while recent momentum in the last few weeks warrants giving some of the better names a second look, I would encourage investors to only invest what they’re willing to risk losing, given the difficult environment that pot stocks have been through in recent years and the potential for negative momentum to return to the driver’s seat, dragging the pot stocks to new depths. For now, I see value to be had for those who don’t mind making a speculative bet.
Could another cannabis boom be right around the corner?
While recent gains are encouraging, I wouldn’t get too excited about the names after an August rally. Though there could be a ton of upside if things continue to go right for the sector, I would stand pat on the names that don’t have the best fundamentals quite yet. Indeed, the broad basket of pot stocks could continue to gain into year’s end and the start of next year if good news south of the border (think U.S. policy) brings a bit of the heat back to cannabis stocks. However, at this juncture, I’d be more inclined to spread buying over the course of a full year.
Shares of Tilray Brands (TSX:TLRY) were a huge gainer in August, nearly doubling in the month. Over the past three months, shares of the firm rocketed by over 189%. With a big-name analyst in Jefferies stepping forward, with a price target hike to $2.00 per share (that represents a more than 75% gain from current levels), I think that the name, which goes for $1 and change per share, might be an intriguing deep-value option for risk takers.
Time will tell how demand shifts as President Trump looks to reclassify cannabis as a less dangerous drug. Could we see the tides shift from alcohol to cannabis? I certainly think so. Younger consumers seem less inclined to drink and more likely to light up than prior generations. And with the rise of cannabis-infused beverages and innovative vaping products, perhaps the cannabis scene could be in for some sustained gains. In short, I think this pot stock rally has room to run!
