The Canadian railroad stocks have been off the rails over the past year, and while many gain-seeking investors have probably already moved on, I still think that those who value dividend growth and relatively attractive prices of admission ought to give the names the benefit of the doubt, even as they continue to roll through headwinds.
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Tariffs have weighed heavily, but for how much longer?
At the end of the day, the Canadian economy won’t be under tariff pressures forever. And while the latest news surrounding that Ronald Reagan ad, which reportedly caused President Trump to turn his back on trade negotiations, certainly seems to be a backward step, I think that long-term investors should continue to be net buyers on weakness, well before a reversal has a chance to happen. Indeed, if there’s a group of transport stocks that stands to win from some sort of new trade deal between Canada and the U.S., it’s the rails.
And though it’s impossible to tell when we’ll get such a deal, especially following news that the ad will be pulled as the Toronto Blue Jays head for the World Series, I think that any panic-driven selling is not to be treated as a red flag for investors who are willing to stay the course and keep on collecting the now swollen dividends through thick and thin.
While the big rail stocks may have lost their market-beating ways, I think they could make up for lost time while continuing to raise their dividends according to schedule, as they usually do. And with some fairly reasonable valuation multiples to get behind, the bearish plunge may finally be worth braving for those with their sights on the longer-term dividend-growth potential.
Why the rail stocks are worth buying now
Today, both shares of CN Rail (TSX: CNR) are in a bear market, down by just over 25%, while its peer CPKC (TSX: CP) narrowly avoided a bear market (that’s defined as a fall of 20% from peak levels) before bouncing back modestly to be down around 13% from all-time highs. With the Nasdaq 100 soaring 21% year to date, it seems tempting to ditch the rails for the tech-heavy U.S. index. However, I think there’s reason to stay aboard the trade, even if it is destined for more of a ride downhill over the intermediate term.
Indeed, it seems confusing as to why CN Rail has fallen twice as much, especially since the name was far cheaper to begin with. The valuation discrepancy has only widened, making CNR stock a very enticing buy on the dip, while CP might be a better candidate for profit-taking. Indeed, CPKC shares have only gained 32% in the past five years, but with a 23.5 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, the shares are anything but cheap.
Additionally, the much smaller 0.86% dividend yield and 1.04 beta make for a somewhat choppier, less bountiful ride than its top rival in the Canadian rail scene. Today, CNR shares trade at a more palatable 18.4 times trailing P/E to go with a massive 2.64% (at least huge for a rail stock) dividend yield and a below-average 0.86 beta. While the growth profile and management team may not merit the same premium as a CPKC, I think there’s ample room for improvement, which, I think, could be rewarded with a P/E north of 20 times again.
Bottom line
Either way, there’s not much in the way of competition in the rail scene. And once a trade deal gets inked, the broad rail industry could be in to make up for lost time after mostly sitting out the past couple of years on the sidelines amid the market rally. Though it seems like no deal will be made after the latest reaction to the Reagan ad, I personally think that the odds of a deal in the new year are high. And that makes the industrials a great buy.
Though I like both rail stocks, CNR is a much better deal. It’s cheaper, you’ll get a much higher yield, and shares might be less choppy of a ride should the TSX Index gravitate lower into 2026.
