Gold prices are starting to show signs of life after quite a sharp drop going into the end of October. With spot prices gaining around 2% on Thursday, it certainly seems like it’s back to business for the gold rally.
And while one shouldn’t discount the potential for further plunges, especially given gold’s remarkable rally that saw the asset more than double in value in two short years, I think that the average investor is still underinvested in gold.
While I’ve been a fan of gold for diversifying a portfolio and reducing one’s beta (acting as a buffer against shocks on a rocky road), I also acknowledge that it’s challenging for a value investor to buy after such an explosive two-year rally.
Though the latest gold dip has hurt those who were a bit late to the shining precious metals trade (note that silver prices have already fallen quite a bit off recent highs), I believe that if you’re willing to hold the asset for at least 10 years and hold through the ups and downs (low beta doesn’t mean volatility can’t soar unexpectedly, as we found out just over a week ago), that gold might still be worth picking up here, especially as some big banks set their targets on gold prices a bit higher for the new year.
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More gains could be in store for gold, at least according to pundits
At this juncture, some big banks see gold prices rising to US$5,000 per ounce. And should it arrive before the end of 2026, my guess is that we’ll hear of further price target hikes from the big banks. Over the near term, the mini-correction in gold prices may or may not be a “golden opportunity” to start a position.
However, if you bought before the plunge and are looking to average down, I’d say it might be wise to add to a position to lower your cost basis slightly, especially if you’re a bit disappointed with your timing. At the end of the day, I think the latest dip will prove nothing more than a blip, especially if the big banks are right about a continuation of this gold rally.
While I’ve been quite vocal on the added downside risks and volatility of the gold miners, I’m not completely against them. I just prefer owning the physical asset to a miner, given their pricey operating costs and other uncertainties (think mining jurisdiction and other risks).
To me, gold might be a better store of value versus cash, and if the Bitcoin trade ends up going down while gold holds its own or even rallies in the face of crypto market jitters, I think gold could benefit from considerable demand from retail investors who are ready to rotate out of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and into the time-tested shiny yellow metal, which, I believe, has no comparable.
Is the stage set for a rotation from crypto to gold?
Sure, digital gold was intriguing for quite some time. But I think the real thing will fare better for portfolios over the long haul. Personally, I think “digital gold” is an unfitting nickname for Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. And once crypto investors learn this the hard way (perhaps after a sell-off in crypto), I think a spectacular rotation into gold from crypto could begin.
So, is now the time to part ways with Bitcoin as you buy up the likes of a SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT: GLD) or even the lower-cost SPDR Gold MiniShares (NYSEMKT: GLDM)?
Over the near term, I have no idea, but over a long-term timeframe, I would rather be in gold than crypto, especially since the five-year chart of Bitcoin scares me from a technical perspective. I think it’s only smart for crypto fans to diversify into other assets, like gold or maybe even its miners. Despite the latest slip, gold still shines bright from a long-term perspective, with a long-term trend still intact and potential drivers in the new year.
