Canadian investors can still find quality TSX dividend stocks trading at attractive prices to add to their self-directed Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) portfolios focused on passive income and long-term total returns.
Buying unloved stocks takes courage and requires patience, but the contrarian strategy can deliver nice returns on a rebound.
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Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ) trades near $45 per share at the time of writing compared to as high as $55 last year.
Lower energy prices are responsible for the pullback in the stock, as CNRL is a major producer of oil and natural gas. The oil assets are diverse, including oil sands, conventional light and heavy oil, and offshore oil production. On the natural gas side, CNRL has significant operations in Western Canada with extensive reserves.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trades near US$60 per barrel right now compared to more than US$80 last year. CNRL says its WTI breakeven point is in the range of US$40 to US$45 per barrel, so the company remains very profitable, even at current price levels. Management has done a good job of increasing production through acquisitions and successful drilling programs. The added revenue is helping offset the drop in margins.
For the first nine months of 2025, CNRL reported adjusted net earnings from operations of $5.7 billion compared to $5.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2024.
Opportunity
CNRL has the size and balance sheet strength to take advantage of weak energy prices to make large strategic acquisitions, as it did last year when it purchased Chevron’s Canadian assets for US$6.5 billion.
Additional oil pipeline capacity is on the way. Brownfield expansion projects are already being planned and discussions are ongoing to potentially get another major pipeline built to carry Alberta oil to the coast.
On the gas side, a glut of natural gas in Canada has put pressure on domestic prices this year. Producers are waiting for expanded liquified natural gas (LNG) export capacity to come online to sell to higher-priced international markets. Several LNG facilities are under construction in Canada and the government is prioritizing these facilities in its plan to reduce reliance on the United States for energy sales.
Natural gas demand is expected to rise in the coming years as gas-fired power generation facilities are built to supply electricity for power-hungry AI data centres.
Growth of export capacity for both oil and natural gas would benefit CNRL.
Risks
Investors will need to be patient. Analysts broadly expect the oil market to be in a surplus position through next year as rising supply in non-OPEC countries, including Canada and the United States, combines with a weak demand outlook. China’s economy remains under pressure due to the property crisis and American tariffs. The U.S. economy could slow down next year if tariffs start to push up prices. A decrease in oil consumption by the two countries would be a headwind for oil prices.
Betting on new major oil pipelines in Canada comes with risk. Several regulatory roadblocks would have to disappear before the private sector considers taking the plunge. Getting all the required stakeholders on side will be difficult, even with the urgency to pivot away from reliance on the U.S. for energy sales.
Dividend
CNRL raised its dividend in each of the past 25 years. Investors who buy the stock at the current level can get a dividend yield of 5.2%. Efficient operations, capital flexibility, and a strong balance sheet have enabled the steady distribution growth.
The bottom line
Near-term volatility is expected in the energy sector. That being said, CNRL should be attractive at the current level and pays investors well to wait for the next rebound in energy prices. If you have some cash to put to work, this stock deserves to be on your radar.
