Economists have mixed outlooks for 2026. Some say the global economy is stable, while others believe it’s only so on the surface. The worriers believe there are underlying factors beneath the surface that can cause instability.
From an investment perspective, the best strategy is to scout for companies that are exceptionally well-positioned to thrive, not just survive, during economic uncertainty.
Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX:ATD) comes to mind if the economic forecast next year is bleak. There are three reasons to buy this consumer staples stock like there’s no tomorrow. If you invest today, the share price is $75.73 with a corresponding dividend yield of 1.1%.
1. Defensive investment
Couche-Tard is the acknowledged leader in the global convenience store industry. This $70.1 billion Canadian multinational company has weathered countless economic downturns and displayed resilience during market weakness. The business is not tied to vulnerable sectors such as housing, industrial production, and manufacturing.
The recession-resistant nature across economic cycles stems from selling essentials, such as basic groceries and fuel. People need them even when times are hard. Furthermore, customers prioritize convenience.
In Q3 fiscal 2026 (three months ended October 12, 2025), net earnings increased 4.4% to US$743.3 million versus Q3 fiscal 2025. At the quarter’s end, the total number of sites is 14,637, with 73 more stores under construction. A bright spot is the strong growth in its foodservice programs.
“We closed the second quarter with growing optimism, reflecting steady progress supported by consistent execution and effective cost management across our operations. As we look ahead, we remain committed to delivering earnings growth over the course of the year,” said Filipe Da Silva, Chief Financial Officer of Couche-Tard.
The fuel business is more volatile than convenience stores, yet it maintains high margins. Moreover, a large operator like Couche-Tard can use its scale to keep costs low. Meanwhile, the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is a threat to Couche-Tard. A substantial portion of revenues comes from fuel sales. If EV sales accelerate, gasoline and diesel demand will gradually decline.
2. Future master consolidator
The convenience store industry is highly fragmented, but market consolidation is on the horizon. It could be the most compelling long-term tailwind for Couche-Tard. Soon, there will be fewer small operators, especially single-store owners.
Expect Couche-Tard to be the primary driver and master consolidator. Management has already mentioned pursuing small to large deals and network-level acquisitions. Consolidation will likewise help achieve its long-standing growth strategy.
3. Massive growth engine
Couche-Tard has extensive M&A experience. The company successfully completed and integrated around 75 major acquisitions globally. Management usually buys fragmented assets at attractive valuations to boost profitability. It uses a proven operational playbook to achieve scale advantages.
The game plan is simple – acquire, integrate, and synergize. The most recent acquisition is GetGo Café + Market in the United States. GetGo’s foodservice capabilities were the main attraction of the $1.6 billion transaction. Also, Couche-Tard cemented its position as the second-largest C-store chain in America.
Positive and resilient
Couche-Tard knows how to play the field. There are two words to describe the business outlook in 2026: positive and resilient. Expansion, a core component of its growth strategy, is a strategic certainty. The three reasons cited here lend confidence to invest in ATD.
