With the U.S. poised to take control over oil sales in Venezuela, questions linger as to what the longer-term impact could be on the Canadian oil giants. Undoubtedly, the U.S. energy plays enjoyed quite a short-lived jolt before coming back to Earth.
And while the broad basket of Canadian energy names has been on a steady decline amid the Venezuela situation, Canadian investors probably shouldn’t hit the panic button, especially now that many others have had ample opportunity to get out of the names that some fear might be less competitive as the U.S. looks to reduce its reliance on Canadian heavy crude.
Indeed, Venezuela produces a similar kind of heavy oil, and with a considerable amount of barrels poised to flow into the U.S. market, questions linger as to what demand for Canadian crude could look like. Undoubtedly, a wider WCS (Western Canadian Select) discount could certainly be in the cards over the medium term. In any case, energy stock investors seem to be in “sell now” mode as they seek to ask questions later as the situation continues to unfold.
The Canadian energy stocks are under pressure
With iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (TSX:XEG) — one of my favourite ways to track the price of top Canadian energy names — falling another 1.5% on Wednesday’s session, the Canadian crude exchange-traded fund (ETF) now finds itself down close to 6% year to date. The year may have just begun, but the pressure on the Canadian energy giants has been quite considerable, and things have the potential to get worse over the near to medium term.
So, how low could the broad basket of TSX energy stocks fall? It’s tough to tell, but I wouldn’t make too much of the recent wave of news either way. The XEG yields a nice 3.5%, but with the stock closing in on the peak experienced in the midpoint of 2022, the technical backdrop certainly does not look good.
Canadian Natural stock starts 2026 with a 10% plunge
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) is an individual Canadian energy play that’s really taken a hit this year, now down more than 10% so far in 2026. It may have just been a few sessions, but the $88 billion titan seems to be on the ropes amid the latest Canadian energy pullback.
While the competitiveness of Canadian crude might come into question this year, I think that investors should play the pullback cautiously, especially given the amplified negative momentum in names such as CNQ. With significant pressure facing crude prices and geopolitical tensions taking a turn for the worse to start the new year, there might be more capitulation to come.
In the past two years, shares of CNQ have sunk 3%. And while the dividend has made holding on worth the while (the yield sits at 5.4% after the latest pullback), a 6% yield certainly isn’t out of the question, especially given the headline risk and the new wave of negative momentum that’s started to weigh down the TSX Index a bit.
So, is it too soon to be a net buyer of the dip? Possibly. I’d much rather wait for the negative momentum to settle before jumping in, especially if subtle jitters turn into a full-blown panic. Though there are catalysts ahead for CNQ and other energy names, the recent wave of headwinds, I think, might be too fierce to justify backing up the truck. Either way, I don’t think it’s time to panic-sell or panic-buy quite yet, given the many unanswered questions that remain.
