U.S.-Canada Trade Talks Have Collapsed: Should You Sell Your Exporter Stocks?

U.S.-Canada trade tensions are heating up, but investors may want to look beyond the tariff noise before dumping these two Canadian exporter stocks.

Key Points
  • CN's strong earnings growth, rising free cash flow, and diversified freight business could help it navigate weaker cross-border trade conditions.
  • West Fraser's second-quarter results improved sharply, while several of its important U.S.-bound products are not affected by the newly announced Section 338 tariffs.
  • Instead of selling Canadian exporter stocks across the board, investors may want to judge each company's actual tariff exposure and underlying business strength.

As the U.S.-Canada trade war continues to escalate, I can understand why investors holding Canadian exporter stocks might be getting nervous. The U.S. has imposed 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods, while Canada has responded with counter-tariffs covering the same value of U.S. imports.

But I don’t think “exporter” is a good enough reason on its own to hit the sell button. The impact of a trade war could largely vary depending on what a company sells, where its operations are located, and whether its products are actually covered by the latest tariffs. For example, Canadian National Railway (TSX: CNR) and West Fraser Timber (TSX: WFG) could actually show why investors need to look beyond that exporter label. Both companies have large U.S. trade, yet their exposure to the latest trade escalation is far from equal.

Let’s look beyond the latest tariff-related noise and find out whether investors should sell, hold, or continue watching CNR and West Fraser as the trade war intensifies.

u.s. government spending

Source: Getty Images

Canadian National Railway stock

Headquartered in Montreal, Canadian National Railway, or CN, transports natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods throughout North America. After climbing 26% so far in 2026, CNR stock currently trades at $170.58 per share, giving the company a market cap of $103.4 billion. It also offers a 2.1% annualized dividend yield.

More importantly, CN entered this period of trade uncertainty with solid business momentum. In the second quarter, the railway’s revenue climbed 11% year over year (YoY) to $4.8 billion. Similarly, its revenue ton-miles rose 5%, driven mainly by strong grain and energy volumes. Meanwhile, CN’s net profit surged 7% YoY to $1.2 billion.

CN generated about $1.8 billion in free cash flow during the first half of 2026, up 19% YoY. Encouraged by strong volumes and operating execution, the railway also raised its 2026 outlook.

Of course, prolonged U.S.-Canada trade tensions could weaken cross-border freight demand. However, CN has a diversified freight mix and continues to improve efficiency. Its hybrid locomotive pilot achieved up to a 50% improvement in fuel efficiency, and the railway is now expanding the program.

That’s why CN’s strong earnings, cash flow, and attractive fundamentals make it an appealing exporter stock to consider holding despite today’s trade uncertainty.

West Fraser Timber stock

West Fraser Timber is a Vancouver-based company that mainly produces lumber, plywood, and other wood products and sells them across North America and Europe. WFG stock trades at $95.08 per share with a market cap of $7.3 billion and a 13% year-to-date gain. At this market price, it offers a 1.9% annualized dividend yield.

In the June quarter, the company’s sales climbed to roughly US$1.4 billion. Its net loss also narrowed sharply to US$61 million from US$188 million.

But here’s the interesting part. West Fraser says its U.S. shipments of softwood lumber, oriented strand board, and about half of its medium-density fibreboard shipments aren’t affected by the newly announced Section 338 tariffs. Based on year-to-date shipments, the company estimated these tariffs would have applied to only about 3% of plywood shipments and 20% of laminated veneer lumber shipments to U.S. customers.

At the same time, West Fraser’s Henderson sawmill continues to ramp up, while it remains focused on cost control and concentrating production at more efficient facilities.

Although WFG carries greater trade risk than CN, its improving operations and more limited exposure to the newest tariffs than the latest news might suggest make this Canadian exporter stock worth watching rather than panic selling.

Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Canadian National Railway and West Fraser Timber. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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