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Is BlackBerry Ltd. the Next Apple Inc.?

BlackBerry Ltd.’s (TSX:BB)(NASDAQ:BBRY) fall from grace has been more than spectacular. As late as 2010, the company controlled over 20% of global smartphone sales. Today, that’s down to less than 1%. Accordingly, its financials are now in shambles. Revenue is down to under $1 billion annually from a high of nearly $6 billion, while its market cap has shrunk from $78 billion to just $4 billion.

While many talk of a comeback, few believe that the company can regain its once dominant position. They say it’s simply not possible … but it is.

The template for success

In 1997, Apple Inc.  (NASDAQ:AAPL) was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. The next year, it turned a profit of over $300 million. How was this possible? They admitted to themselves that their products needed to change radically.

“You know what’s wrong with this company?” said Steve Jobs at the time. “The products suck.” The company went on the release the iMac, and later, iPods, iPads, and iPhones. Today it is the most valuable company in the world.

Can this happen for BlackBerry? It’s more possible than you think.

Last month the company released its most innovative product in years: the BlackBerry Priv. This new phone solves nearly every issue that contributed to the firm’s epic collapse, namely a lack of apps, a clunky user interface, and outdated hardware. BlackBerry may have found its version of the iPhone in one product.

BlackBerry’s CEO says the company needs to sell five million phones a year to stay in the consumer handset business. If the raving consumer reviews are any sign, the company might just do that. Android Central’s glowing review called the device “one heck of an Android phone.” Influential website The Verge said that “BlackBerry has risen to the occasion, creating a device that’s bursting with good ideas on both the hardware and software side.”

Only time will tell if reviews result in orders, but it’s a solid first step.

How much could BlackBerry stock rise?

Last year, roughly 1.3 billion smartphones were sold worldwide. To hit its target of shipping five million units, BlackBerry will need to take 0.4% of the market. For comparison, Apple shipped an average of 55 million units per quarter this year.

At $699 apiece, five million units would equate to roughly $3.5 billion in additional sales. With 30% margins, the company would add about $1 billion in profits. Even at 10 times earnings (the market currently trades closer to 20 times), the company would have a market cap over 100% higher than today’s price. If you’re a believer in the Priv, big things are coming for BlackBerry’s stock price.

Want to know our TOP turnaround stock pick?

When companies fall from grace like this Canadian icon did, it's typically impossible to regain relevance. Here at Motley Fool Canada, we think this company and its CEO are prepared to prove all of the doubters wrong. We have even named it one TOP turnaround stock for 2015. Will you be left on the outside looking in should our intuition come to fruition?

If you're a curious soul (like me), then you can download the name, ticker symbol, and price guidance absolutely FREE.

Simply click here to receive your Special FREE Report, "A Top Turnaround Stock Idea for 2015."

Fool contributor Ryan Vanzo has no position in any stocks mentioned. David Gardner owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple.

NEW! This Stock Could Be Like Buying Amazon In 1997

For only the 5th time in over 14 years, Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner just issued a Buy Recommendation on this recent Canadian IPO.

Stock Advisor Canada’s Chief Investment Adviser, Iain Butler, also recommended this company back in March – and it’s already up a whopping 57%!

Enter your email address below to find out how you can claim your copy of this brand new report, “Breakthrough IPO Receives Rare Endorsement.”

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