There are few business models as time-tested as banking. And for investors of Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD)(NYSE:TD), banking has been a great way to generate lucrative returns on investment. If you had bought shares three years ago, you would have paid approximately $48.39 per share. Fast forward to today, and you’re sitting on a stock trading at a little over $64.30. That’s a 32.88% return on investment, which doesn’t even take into consideration the dividends that have been paid out during that time.
But with the company trading at over $64, an all-time high for the stock, new and current investors have to ask themselves whether there is more room for growth or if it’s a good time to sell the company.
TD Bank will reporting its Q4 earnings in the next few days, and if they’re anything like Q3, the signs are quite good for the company. It generated $8.7 billion in revenue in Q3, which blew analyst expectations of $8.08 billion out the window. This $700 million improvement year over year contributed to adjusted net earnings beating analyst expectations as well. All told, the company earned $1.27 per share versus the expected $1.21.
TD Bank is focused on the Canadian and U.S. economies. In Canada, its net income was actually down from $1.6 billion to $1.5 billion, which it blamed on higher insurance claims. But within the Canadian division, its wholesale banking division saw net income increase by 26%. If those insurance claims drop and the wholesale banking division continues to grow, this could be very lucrative.
And in the U.S., its net income rose to $788 million–an increase of $144 million year over year. The retail side continues to do particularly well, pushing its income up 14%. But it is the 41% stake in TD Ameritrade that has me particularly intrigued because this saw net income increase by 36%.
And, of course, there’s the acquisition TD Bank made…
In October, TD Ameritrade and TD Bank announced that it would be buying Scottrade for US$4 billion. TD Ameritrade would be acquiring the brokerage assets from Scottrade, which it believes will help the company save US$450 million annually. TD Bank will get its banking assets, which have tangible book value of US$41.3 billion. All told, TD Bank will have US$13 billion in cash and securities, US$4 billion in loans and leases, and US$15 billion in sweep deposits.
All of this contributes to the bank’s ability to pay a 3.42% yield, which is good for $0.55 per quarter. This is 8% higher than it was in January, so I fully expect management to continue increasing the dividend if it sees earnings continue to move higher.
All of this points to an immediate buy, right?
Unfortunately, I don’t believe TD Bank is a good buy right now. Part of buying high-quality stocks is not overpaying for them. And with the recent spike in price in November, the stock is now trading at a P/E ratio of 14.5. It’s highly unlikely that the bank will continue trading here, so I expect a correction to take place at some point in the coming months. Should that occur, it might make a better time to buy. But right now, I can’t recommend buying shares of TD Bank.
