TFSA Investors: 1 Airline Stock to Buy and 1 to Stay Away From

Is it prudent to bet on airline stocks such as Air Canada with a recession expected in 2020?

It’s a low-growth environment for airlines in the developed world today. According to Airports Council International’s latest World Airport Traffic Report published in September 2019, global passenger traffic grew by 4.8% in advanced economies, compared to 8.3% in emerging and developing economies.

With emerging economies poised to be the growth engine for the airline industry, it makes sense to bet on an airline stock that’s making all the right moves in this space.

Air Canada

Air Canada (TSX: AC)(TSX:AC.B) is Canada’s largest domestic and international airline serving more than 210 airports on six continents. It is among the 20 largest airlines in the world and serves more than 50 million customers each year.

The airline reported third-quarter 2019 EBITDA of $1.472 billion compared to third-quarter 2018 EBITDA of $1.351 billion, an increase of $121 million or 9%. The airline reported an operating income of $956 million in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the operating income of $923 million in the third quarter of 2018.

The company also generated record operating revenues close to $5.6 billion and reached liquidity of close to $7.6 billion.

As Fool contributor Nikhil Kumar said, the company has forged close partnerships with other carriers and formed two joint ventures with United Airlines and Air China. Air Canada expects to have a first-mover advantage in the growing Chinese air transport market, which is expected to become the world’s largest by 2022.

The partnership with Air China is particularly critical as the air cargo market is slowing down due to geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The ACI report found that the air cargo market only grew at 3.4% for 2018. The Air China partnership is a great counter to this.

Here’s another reason to buy this airline stock. The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) Board recommends Air Canada as a long term buy-and-hold stock for investors.

WestJet Airlines

Generally, when a company reports its second-highest ever third-quarter net earnings and the third-highest quarterly net earnings in its history, you’d expect the stock to rocket up. However, WestJet Airlines (TSX:WJA) has barely moved after it announced its third-quarter earnings for 2019 on October 29. The stock was at $30.60 then and it’s at $30.61 today.

Net earnings for Q3 of 2019 came in at $119.4 compared with $70.1 million in 2018, a year-over-year increase of 70.4%. Over seven million passengers flew with WestJet during this period. The stock has been hovering around the $30 levels since May 2019. That was when the company agreed to a sale to Onex for $5 billion (including debt) which means WestJet will go private.

Matters took a different turn when rival Air Canada sent a letter to the Canadian Transportation Agency launching a challenge against the deal, claiming that it violated foreign-ownership rules that state an airline has to be at least 51% owned by Canadians. Onex’s holding structure (it gets funds from multiple sources) makes this a complex matter. Since Onex is based in Toronto, it seems unlikely that this deal won’t go through but it’s best to stay away from this stock until there is more clarity.

Fool contributor Aditya Raghunath has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

More on Investing

A meter measures energy use.
Energy Stocks

Rates Are Rising Again: Is Emera Still a Sensible Retirement Stock?

Emera still offers retirement income, but borrowing costs and per-share earnings decide how comfortably that payment can grow.

Read more »

ETFs can contain investments such as stocks
Dividend Stocks

How to Use a TFSA to Generate $200 in Monthly Tax-Free Income

Use a TFSA to build $200 in monthly tax-free income with XEI and ZRE. See how these ETFs work and…

Read more »

Business success of growth metaverse finance and investment profit graph concept or development analysis progress chart on financial market achievement strategy background with increase hand diagram
Dividend Stocks

Smart Ways to Invest Extra Income and Say Goodbye to Financial Stress

Canadians have ways to make their extra income work as hard as they do and say goodbye to financial stress.

Read more »

how to save money
Energy Stocks

How Much Would You Need to Invest in Enbridge to Average $200 a Month?

Enbridge’s current dividend needs roughly $42,600 in shares to average $200 monthly, with payments arriving every quarter.

Read more »

Two seniors walk in the forest
Dividend Stocks

Sun Life Stock Pays 3.3%: How Much to Invest for $100 a Month in Dividends

Sun Life Financial (TSX:SLF) might be a massive bargain after Thursday's vicious plunge as stock markets sold off hard.

Read more »

TFSA (Tax free savings account) acronym on wooden cubes on the background of stacks of coins
Dividend Stocks

How to Turn Your TFSA Into $1,000 a Month in Tax-Free Income

Build toward $1,000 a month in tax-free income with a TFSA. See how Enbridge, Scotiabank and ZWC could help, and…

Read more »

customer fills up car with gasoline
Dividend Stocks

How Much Emergency Money Do Canadians Actually Need?

A safety fund equivalent to 3 to 6 months of living expenses is generally the baseline buffer that Canadians would…

Read more »

Piggy bank in autumn leaves
Bank Stocks

Rates Are Rising Again, So Are GICs and High-Interest Savings ETFs Even Worth It?

The Bank of Canada hiked rates to 2.50%. See what a GIC or the Purpose savings ETF earns on $10,000…

Read more »