Down 30% in 3 Months, Is AC Stock a Buy Today?

Air Canada stock (TSX:AC) climbed this year and is still up 10% in the last year, but down 30% in the last three months. So what now?

Amy Legate-Wolfe

Author Bio Amy became interested in investing in 2018 after having her first daughter. After receiving a masters degree in journalism from Western University, she became frustrated that the finance industry remained a confusing place for Canadians like her: new parents, millennials, and other young people who needed to understand their finances. Now, Amy focuses on tech companies and renewable energy for growth opportunities, coupling that with long-term investing strategies and equities. She also provides investors with a daily newsletter, Canada Stock Digest, for daily market updates. Her work can also be found at Canada's National Observer, where she writes on the business side of climate action. Before joining Motley Fool Canada, Amy wrote for major news organizations including HuffPost, CTVNews.ca, and CBC. When she’s not researching investing strategies, Amy’s time is pretty much monopolized by her two wild daughters, but in what little spare time she has she loves to do yoga, go on walks with her dog, and travel with her husband. Social Media Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Canada Stock Digest. Favorite Investment Quote “October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” – Mark Twain

Published October 13, 2023 8:00 pm EDT

Air Canada (TSX: AC) has been a prominent name in the airline industry, known for its extensive global network and leading brand. However, in the last three months, its stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping by nearly 30%. This downward trend has left investors wondering whether Air Canada stock is a strong long-term opportunity or one to be avoided. To better understand this situation, we’ll delve into the factors behind the stock’s recent decline. Further, we’ll examine both bullish and bearish perspectives.

A bull and bear face off. — Source: Getty Images

Recent performance

In its second-quarter results, Michael Rousseau, President and CEO of Air Canada, highlighted the airline’s achievements. The company’s operating revenues reaching $5.4 billion, marking a 36% year-over-year increase. Operating income and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also showed substantial improvements. The latter reached $1.2 billion and an EBITDA margin of 22.5%.

There was also an announcement of a firm order for 18 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner aircraft. This is part of Air Canada stock’s commitment to upgrading its fleet and improving operational efficiency. These new aircraft will replace older, less efficient models, offering potential cost savings and enhancing passenger experience. The inclusion of options for an additional 12 Boeing 787-10s provides flexibility for future growth, reflecting the airline’s optimism about increasing customer demand.

So why the fall?

Despite these positive developments, several factors have contributed to Air Canada stock’s decline in recent months. First, the airline heavily relies on international travel, which has been slower to recover after the pandemic compared to domestic travel. While borders have started reopening, the pace of international travel recovery remains uncertain, impacting the company’s financial performance.

Furthermore, the potential entry of ultra-low-cost carriers into the Canadian market poses a significant threat to the industry, creating fare pressure that could affect Air Canada stock’s profitability. As the market leader in Canada, the airline has the most to lose if a financially distressed competitor lowers prices to compete for passengers.

Bears versus Bulls

So what do the analysts say? Bulls believe the reopening of international borders is expected to boost international travel, which is a significant part of Air Canada stock’s business. This development could lead to increased revenues. The demand for leisure travel has rebounded sharply from the pandemic, and pent-up travel demand may continue to support air travel even during economic downturns. Furthermore, Air Canada stock has a strong track record of managing its debt load, and its liquidity is not immediately threatened by high leverage.

Meanwhile, the bears say that Air Canada stock’s reliance on international travel could continue to be a challenge. The company lags behind the recovery of domestic travel. The potential entry of ultra-low-cost carriers into the Canadian market may create fare pressure across the industry. This could impact Air Canada’s profitability. As the market leader in Canada, Air Canada stock is vulnerable to competitive pressures if financially distressed rivals lower prices to compete for passengers.

Long-term outlook

The future of Air Canada stock depends on a multitude of factors. This includes the pace of international travel recovery, competition from new entrants, and the airline’s ability to adapt to changing market dynamics. The bullish outlook sees opportunities in border reopenings and pent-up demand fuelling the stock. However, the bearish perspective points to potential challenges in the form of slow international recovery and increased competition.

Investors should approach Air Canada stock with caution, considering their risk tolerance and investment horizon. The airline’s long-term potential may become clearer as international travel fully recovers and the competitive landscape evolves. It’s crucial for investors to stay informed about the airline industry’s developments. Further, investors should look at Air Canada’s strategic moves. Then, they can make informed decisions about this stock in the coming months and years.