Prediction: Shopify Will Be a Top TSX Outperformer in 2025

Let’s dive into the bull case behind why Shopify (TSX:SHOP) could indeed be a top-performing TSX stock in the coming year.

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Investors looking for exposure to top Canadian growth stocks really don’t have a very long list. Most Canadian stocks, for better or worse, are focused on slower growth and providing higher dividend income than many other markets in the world. In large part, I think that’s a good thing, and there are many investors that clearly agree.

However, within the high-growth technology market, Canadian giant Shopify (TSX:SHOP) remains a top option to consider. The e-commerce platform provider has continued to perform well in recent years, though concerns around the company’s ability to continue to provide strong growth from here remains uncertain.

Let’s dive into whether Shopify can turn into the pre- and post-pandemic darling many investors got used to or if this stock is one to avoid right now.

e-commerce shopping getting a package

Source: Getty Images

Shopify’s business model is timeless

As one of the largest e-commerce platform providers in the world, Shopify offers a range of solutions to small- and medium-sized businesses looking to sell their products and services online. From setting up an online shop to handling transactions, Shopify’s integrated product ecosystem is very popular among the businesses that use it.

Very small companies will see minimal fees for using Shopify’s products. However, as they grow and transactions breach various milestones, Shopify takes a larger cut along the way. This aligns the company’s growth profile with that of the overall e-commerce sector. Accordingly, those bullish on the future growth prospects in this space may certainly look at companies like Shopify as solid ways to play this momentum.

With operations in 175 countries around the globe, Shopify’s platform allows for customizable, reliable and secure online operations for those on its platform. As far as essential tech companies are concerned, the services Shopify provides are world-class. It’s clear that Shopify has some strong pricing power in this space due to its growing scale.

Strong growth outlook bodes well for long-term investors

Shopify’s long-term global growth plans are as extensive as they are impressive. The company plans to increase its revenue in the high-teens percentage rate annually moving forward. This growth is expected to come as a result of greater market penetration in the new markets the company is targeting. And notably, Shopify is putting its money where its mouth is. The company has a capital-spending plan of around $5 billion to grow its position in the market and continue to innovate and provide greater value to end users.

Here’s why Shopify stock looks like a buy right now

In order to look forward, investors may want to take a step back and see where Shopify has come from in recent quarters. After incredibly high post-pandemic comps hurt the company’s growth rate, Shopify has since produced revenue growth in the +20% range in recent quarters. This comes alongside margins of 12% (which I think have room to grow) and overall gross profit margins of more than 50%. Those are the kinds of numbers investors want to see, with particular emphasis on strong subscription solutions sales being a key driver.

So long as Shopify can continue to raise its margins over time and execute on its pricing power, this is a stock I think is worth considering. The company’s strong long-term growth profile, tied to broader e-commerce trends, makes this stock one to consider on major dips. And given how far SHOP stock is from its all-time high, it’s clear that any sort of next leg higher in this ongoing bull market could provide investors with very favourable upside.

In sum, the risk/reward scenario for Shopify looks well-balanced right now. This is a stock I think remains a buy right now.

Fool contributor Chris MacDonald has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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