As we navigate through 2025, Shopify (TSX:SHOP) stands out as a dominant player in the e-commerce sector, maintaining its stronghold as a leading TSX stock long-term growth investors continue to look to hold, even through this recent bout of volatility.
Significant investor interest in various economically sensitive stocks appears to be shaping up, particularly as Trump tariffs continue to roil sentiment among many investors looking at higher growth names. But with longer-term yields coming down and the overall picture starting to shape up in a positive way on the macro headwind front (tariffs have been paused on Mexico and Canada, with expectations that these could simply be used as negotiating tools), perhaps Shopify is a company that could come out of this fray ahead.
Here’s my prediction on where Shopify could end the year and why I think this is a stock that’s more likely than not to continue to see its share price surge.
Strong financials driving the growth story
For Shopify, a growth stock that’s certainly responsive to the macro backdrop, many of the aforementioned headwinds are currently playing into investor sentiment around this name.
From a fundamental standpoint, Shopify continues to perform well
The company’s performance in 2024 relative to its 2023 showing highlights strong growth. Revenue surged 26% on a year-over-year basis last year, with free cash flow rocketing to $421 million and margins remaining healthy around 19%. If margins can grow and cash flow can continue to grow at a similar clip moving forward, this is certainly a stock with upside potential from here.
Most of this growth is driven by global secular growth catalysts tied to the rise of e-commerce as a viable long-term medium of exchange and perhaps the most lucrative and important area of growth in the world of retail. So, for those who believe in the underlying growth trends in this space, Shopify remains one of the best ways to play these trends.
Strategic growth drivers remain plentiful
As mentioned, the company’s global e-commerce leadership is what makes Shopify most enticing for growth investors. The company’s expansion into other countries has borne fruit, with growth in key markets such as Spain (52% increase last year) highlighting the attractiveness of Shopify’s brand globally.
Additionally, with the company’s management team continuing to invest heavily in its AI initiatives, this is a stock with the potential for growth acceleration ahead. Those bullish on the ability of companies like Shopify to integrate AI into their business models to spur growth may continue to flock to this name. That’s not surprising, considering the company’s recent results.
So, where is Shopify headed from here?
Personally, I think the high analyst price target for Shopify (implying more than 17% upside from here) makes sense. This is a company that’s clearly moving in the right direction, with plenty of momentum. So, for investors who think the party isn’t over yet, this is a stock worth considering right now, in my view.
