Gold’s relentless climb to record highs has investors scrambling for exposure to the precious metal. But choosing between two Canadian mining titans—Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX) stock and Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM) stock—isn’t as simple as betting on shiny rocks. While Agnico Eagle stock has sprinted ahead with a 135% total return over five years, Barrick Gold’s 5.7% gain feels like a relic of another era. Yet beneath the surface, shifting dynamics in production, costs, and geopolitical risks could rewrite the script in 2025. Let’s dig into which gold stock might glitter brighter in a retirement portfolio.
ABX Total Return Price data by YCharts
Barrick Gold stock: Copper’s hidden hand and a valuation play
Barrick Gold’s story isn’t just about gold. With copper output poised to rise 10-17% in 2025, the miner is quietly positioning itself as a critical player in the global electrification boom. Projects like Reko Diq in Pakistan and Lumwana in Zambia could double Barrick’s copper production by 2030, offering a hedge against gold’s volatility.
However, 2025 brings near-term headaches: suspended operations at Mali’s Loulo-Gounkoto mines will slash gold output to 3.15-3.5 million ounces, down from 3.9 million in 2024. Political risks in Mali have weighed on shares, but Barrick is countering with a bold US$1 billion share-repurchase program, signalling confidence in its undervalued stock.
Most noteworthy, Barrick isn’t new to similar political risks in its host countries. The company faced a similar challenge in Tanzania in 2019. Management should be experienced in navigating such “disputes.”
Financially, Barrick’s metrics scream value. A forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 15.4 and P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio of one suggest the stock is fairly priced, especially compared to Agnico’s richer multiples. Its 2.2% dividend yield, paired with a price-to-tangible-book ratio of 1.1, adds some appeal for income-focused investors. Yet higher production costs—US$1,484 per ounce all-in sustaining costs (AISC) in 2024—could squeeze margins if gold prices stall.
Agnico Eagle: The low-cost growth machine
Agnico Eagle’s relentless focus on high-grade, low-risk jurisdictions has paid off handsomely. With mines in Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico, the company sidesteps the geopolitical landmines that repeatedly haunt Barrick Gold. Agnico Eagle’s 2024 AISC of US$1,239 per ounce of gold bests Barrick by US$245, translating to fatter profit margins even if gold prices plateau. Its production guidance of 3.4 million ounces in 2025 could outpace Barrick’s output, thanks to disruptions in Mali.
The 2022 merger with Kirkland Lake Gold supercharged Agnico’s reserves and operational scale. Projects like the Canadian Malartic mine—poised to become Canada’s largest gold operation—highlight management’s growth ambitions. Yet, valuation remains a sticking point. A forward P/E of 28.9 and PEG ratio of 3.7 suggest investors are pricing in nearly perfect execution.
Agnico Eagle stock’s 1.7% dividend yield, while lower than Barrick’s, comes with a 41-year payout streak and a five-year growth rate of 23.8%, appealing to those prioritizing consistency.
The 2025 tug-of-war: Risks vs. rewards
Barrick’s copper diversification is a double-edged sword. While copper offers leverage to green energy trends, it also ties Barrick’s fortunes to volatile global industrial demand—a stark contrast to Agnico’s pure-play gold focus. For retirees, this could mean Barrick provides broader commodity exposure but introduces complexity.
Agnico’s lower-cost structure and jurisdictional safety make it a “sleep-well-at-night” gold mining stock, but its premium valuation leaves little room for missteps. Barrick’s buybacks and depressed valuation, meanwhile, offer a margin of safety if copper prices rally or Mali’s issues are resolved.
Investor takeaway
Choosing between Barrick Gold stock and Agnico Eagle stock hinges on an investor’s appetite for risk versus reward. Agnico Eagle’s operational excellence and growth trajectory make it a compelling pick for those willing to pay up for stability and momentum. Barrick Gold, with its copper upside and deep-value profile, appeals to contrarians betting on a rebound.
In a retirement portfolio, Agnico Eagle stock suits investors prioritizing predictable returns and lower volatility. Barrick, however, could deliver asymmetric gains if copper surges or its African operations stabilize. Both stocks have merit—but in 2025, Agnico’s execution edge might just keep it ahead of the pack.
