After surging by around 4,800% in just six years, Shopify (TSX:SHOP) stock nosedived by 73% in 2022. This was the time when rising interest rates, slowing e-commerce growth, and a broad tech selloff rattled even the most promising companies. For many investors, it felt like the Shopify story had peaked.
But that wasn’t the end — it marked what seemed like a reset. Since that low point, Shopify has mounted a remarkable comeback, soaring 234% from $47.01 to $156.83 per share and lifting its market cap to $203 billion. Now, with fresh momentum behind it, the question is back on the table: just how far can Shopify go from here?
In this article, let’s take a long-term view and explore where Shopify stock could be by 2035 — and what that means for investors today.
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What’s behind Shopify’s comeback?
At the heart of Shopify’s big comeback in the last couple of years is its ability to adapt fast. After shedding its logistics business and sharpening its focus on core software and commerce tools, the company has doubled down on making its e-commerce platform more attractive for merchants. In fact, that merchant-first mindset has been the fuel behind its recent rally.
Whether it’s an ambitious entrepreneur or a global brand, they can all find useful tools on Shopify’s platform today. And as more businesses lean into direct-to-consumer selling, the Ottawa-based e-commerce platform provider keeps riding that wave.
In addition, a sharp focus on efficiency has improved its financial growth in recent years. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company’s free cash flow margin expanded to 22% YoY (year over year) while its operating income reached US$1.1 billion for 2024. That’s around 12 times what it posted just four years ago.
Consistent growth continues
In the latest quarter ended December 2024, Shopify’s sales jumped 31% YoY to US$2.81 billion. That’s Shopify’s seventh straight quarter of at least 25% growth (excluding logistics). Similarly, the company’s quarterly gross profit also jumped 27% from a year ago, and the company ended the year with a record US$1.6 billion in free cash flow.
More importantly, its B2B gross merchandise volume (GMV) more than doubled. To add optimism, Shopify’s international revenue jumped 33% YoY. Even offline sales from physical stores grew 33% from a year ago as the company continued to gain traction with in-person retailers.
And it’s not just about selling more as SHOP is also focusing on profitability growth. This was one of the key reasons why its free cash flow margins improved every single quarter last year.
Where will Shopify stock be in 10 years?
That’s the million-dollar question. But if current trends hold, Shopify could very well be one of the biggest tech giants of the next decade.
It’s already crossed the US$1 trillion mark in total GMV. Its payments arm is growing. Similarly, its artificial intelligence (AI) features are making the platform smarter and more attractive for merchants. With all these efforts, Shopify’s vision clearly remains to become the go-to commerce engine for businesses of all sizes. While it’s nearly impossible for anyone to predict where SHOP stock will be 10 years from now, I wouldn’t be surprised if it delivers even stronger returns in the next decade than it did in the last as it continues to play a much bigger, smarter, and more profitable game.
