Investing in renewable energy has become more than just a trend. It’s now a cornerstone of future-focused portfolios. Northland Power (TSX:NPI) has long positioned itself as a leader in the space, offering both stability and long-term growth potential. With rising global energy demand and a push toward cleaner sources, many investors are asking: where will Northland Power be in three years?
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The stock
As of writing, Northland Power trades at around $20.25 per share and has a market cap of $5.3 billion. That price reflects a significant decline from its highs a couple of years ago, but the story is far from over. Like many renewable energy companies, Northland has faced headwinds including inflation, interest rate hikes, and softer wind speeds in Europe have all played a role. But behind the short-term noise, the long-term strategy remains clear, and investors with patience could be rewarded.
Northland Power’s first-quarter 2025 results showed revenue of $648.5 million, down from $754.9 million in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024. Net income came in at $110.8 million, compared to $149.3 million the year before. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were also lower at $361.2 million, reflecting the impact of lighter wind conditions in Europe. These declines, while notable, were not unexpected. Northland has been clear that 2025 will be a transitional year as it moves through a phase of capital-intensive growth projects.
And those projects are impressive. The Hai Long offshore wind project in Taiwan is a marquee investment. Once complete, it will be one of the largest offshore wind facilities in Asia. It has already secured 20-year feed-in tariff contracts from Taiwan’s government, locking in long-term, predictable cash flows. The Baltic Power offshore wind project in Poland is also well underway. This project is expected to serve over 1.5 million homes and will be key to Poland’s decarbonization strategy.
Even more to come
Closer to home, Northland is making a big push into energy storage. The Oneida battery storage project in Ontario is a major component of the company’s North American strategy. With increasing demand for grid reliability and flexibility, energy storage is a natural extension of Northland’s core capabilities. It helps the company smooth out the variability of renewables and opens up new revenue streams from power grid services.
Together, these projects are expected to contribute an estimated $570 to $615 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA by 2027 and between $185 to $210 million in free cash flow. That’s significant, considering the company generated about $1.3 billion in EBITDA in 2024. In short, Northland is laying the foundation for a major earnings jump starting in 2026 and ramping into 2027.
Looking ahead three years, Northland could be in a very different place. By 2027, most of its major growth projects will be operational. That means a step-change in cash flow, stronger earnings, and likely a rerating of the stock if the market starts to price in that growth. With wind and solar set to make up more than 50% of new global power capacity additions through 2030, Northland is in the right markets with the right strategy.
Bottom line
So, where will Northland Power be in three years? If it delivers on its current pipeline and maintains operational discipline, it could generate 50% more cash flow than today and offer a growing dividend alongside. For investors with a long-term mindset, the next few years could represent a turning point. The stock might be under pressure now, but that’s often when the best opportunities are found.
