Prediction: BlackBerry Stock Will Beat the Market – Here’s Why

With a major shift in focus and a sharp rebound in the stock price, BlackBerry stock might just be getting started.

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BlackBerry’s (TSX:BB) comeback has been hard to ignore. After a brutal 63% drop in 2022, the stock has staged a remarkable recovery over the past two and a half years. As of June 27, 2025, BB stock has surged by 112% over the last year alone and is now trading at $6.45 with a market cap of $3.8 billion.

I’ve had this stock on my radar for many years, before finally adding it to my portfolio because I saw real staying power and explosive growth potential. BlackBerry has been shedding non-core operations, including its artificial intelligence (AI)-focused cybersecurity arm, and is now doubling down on connected tech – especially in automotive software and enterprise platforms. That shift has started to pay off, and I believe there’s a lot more upside from here.

In this article, I’ll break down the three main reasons I expect BlackBerry to beat the broader market going forward, and why long-term investors might want to take a fresh look at it now.

Focused strategy is starting to pay off

That shift in strategy I just talked about isn’t just a surface-level change. It’s a much deeper shift, and its financials are gradually beginning to reflect that.

In the first quarter of its fiscal year 2026 (ended in May 2025), BlackBerry posted revenue of US$121.7 million, exceeding the high end of its own guidance. More importantly, its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) came in at US$16.4 million, also above expectations. For the first time since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, the company posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) profit with a net income of US$1.9 million.

That strong financial performance clearly reflects how BlackBerry is starting to build some real momentum on the earnings front. And that’s a key shift for investors looking at it with a longer-term Foolish investing approach.

QNX is turning into a high-performance growth engine

In the latest quarter, BlackBerry’s QNX division reported an 8% YoY (year-over-year) jump in its revenue to US$57.5 million and contributed US$12.7 million in adjusted EBITDA, which was about 22% of its revenue. This growth came along with the launch of its next-gen hypervisor platform, which is mainly designed for advanced driver assistance and embedded systems.

Interestingly, QNX isn’t just about software for cars (though that’s a big piece). It’s also becoming a key player in safety-critical systems across industries. That relevance across sectors makes BlackBerry stock even more appealing today, especially as the demand for intelligent, real-time systems continues to surge.

Secure Communications adds stability

While QNX drives the upside, BlackBerry’s secure communications business is also delivering consistent growth. In the latest quarter, its revenue from this division hit US$59.5 million, once again beating guidance. It also posted US$9.6 million in adjusted quarterly EBITDA.

Even though annual recurring revenue in this unit remained relatively flat at US$209 million, the secure communications segment still delivered profitability and consistent cash flow.

Foolish takeaway

In terms of financials, BlackBerry stock has kicked off its fiscal 2026 on a solid note. Whether it’s the better-than-expected sales, the improving EBITDA, or the return to GAAP profitability, the stock is showing signs that it’s finally in the early stages of a credible turnaround. And that’s exactly the point in a company’s growth journey that long-term investors don’t want to overlook.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has positions in BlackBerry. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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