If you’re curious where Shopify (TSX:SHOP) might be in a year, you’re not alone. The company has been on a bit of a rollercoaster the last few years, and investors are watching closely to see if it can keep up its momentum. Shopify stock has gone from being a pandemic darling to facing questions about profitability, global expansion, and rising competition. Yet as of writing, it’s showing signs of renewed strength. Let’s get into what’s been going on and whether there will be growth in the company’s future.
Into earnings
Shopify stock’s latest earnings report gives us a good place to start. In the first quarter of 2025, Shopify posted revenue of US$2.36 billion, which was a 27% increase year over year. Gross merchandise volume came in at US$74.8 billion, showing the platform is still processing a significant amount of customer transactions.
On an adjusted basis, net income came in at US$226 million, a solid jump from US$144 million the year before. That’s the kind of progress investors like to see. However, the company also reported a net loss of US$682 million due to investment-related write-downs. That spooked some investors, sending the stock down temporarily.
Still, the business itself looks healthy. Shopify stock continues to grow its subscription revenue, expand its merchant base, and roll out tools that increase customer loyalty. It’s also adding more artificial intelligence (AI) features to support merchant operations, which could become a major competitive advantage. Shopify Magic and Sidekick, its AI assistant, are already helping sellers automate tasks and better manage their storefronts. That kind of innovation adds long-term value.
Another important update is Shopify stock’s ongoing international growth. The company has been expanding its presence in Europe and Asia, aiming to attract more global sellers. It also continues to gain traction with enterprise clients, who tend to bring higher order volumes and more predictable revenue. These segments could help Shopify stock grow faster than the broader e-commerce market over the next year.
Growth on the way?
As of now, Shopify stock trades around $155 per share, giving it a market cap of nearly $202 billion. Its valuation is still steep, but that’s not unusual for a company that’s delivering high revenue growth and operating in a space with massive long-term potential. Analysts are mixed. Some have set price targets above $170, while others are more cautious, citing macroeconomic risks and slowing consumer spending. But the consensus remains that Shopify stock is in a strong position.
Looking ahead, several factors could shape where the stock goes in the next 12 months. First, margins. Shopify stock has said it plans to keep operating expenses steady relative to revenue, which would allow it to scale profitably. If that happens, it could ease investor concerns about cash burn and bring more institutional money into the stock.
Second, trade tensions and tariffs have weighed on Shopify stock in recent months. The company says that only a small percentage of its merchandise volume depends on Chinese imports, but even the perception of risk has been enough to trigger short-term dips. If these fears ease or if Shopify stock continues to mitigate the impact with logistics and supplier tools, the stock could stabilize.
Finally, broader market sentiment will play a role. If interest rates remain steady or decline, growth stocks like Shopify could benefit. However, if economic uncertainty returns, more volatility could follow. Still, Shopify’s recurring revenue and high customer retention provide a buffer.
Bottom line
So, where will Shopify stock be in one year? If revenue continues to grow at a 20% to 25% clip, and if the company gets closer to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) profitability, it could be trading higher than it is today. Growth in international markets and enterprise adoption could push it even further. There will be bumps along the way, but Shopify stock has proven it can adapt and lead.
The next year won’t be without challenges, but Shopify stock has a strong business model and a clear roadmap. For investors willing to ride out short-term noise, this stock could deliver meaningful gains by next summer. It might not double overnight, but it has all the tools to keep growing steadily in the months ahead.
