That juicy 12% dividend yield from PetroTal (TSX:TAL) stock is enough to make any income investor do a double-take, especially in July 2025. The double-digit passive income yield screams “opportunity,” but it usually whispers “risk.” Following its 37% total return so far this year, the TSX energy stock presents a fascinating investing puzzle as we navigate the mid-year point of 2025. Production is growing at double-digit rates, and PetroTal’s management has a mid-term target to triple the $640 million stock to a $2 billion market capitalization. So, what’s the verdict for investors eyeing this Peru-focused oil producer right now? Buy, sell, or hold?
PetroTal stock: A Bretana play for passive income
PetroTal’s story revolves almost entirely around its key asset: the Bretana oil field in Block 95, Peru. This is where the company generates its revenue, pumping crude oil primarily from this prolific field (with Block 107 also in the mix). The strategy has been clear: generate strong cash flow and return a significant chunk to shareholders.
That hefty 12% yield isn’t an accident; it reflects a deliberate payout policy currently sitting at 60% of profits. The big question echoing across investing chat rooms and brokerage accounts is simple: Can the dividend survive?
The company’s disciplined capital spending reinforces its dividend quality given the oil field’s reliable performance. The dividend’s 60% payout ratio is designed to be sustainable through moderate price swings, leaving room to reinvest in the field and maintain production levels (measured in barrels of oil per day, or bopd).
Management has consistently signalled a commitment to shareholder returns, a theme emphasized in its May 2025 corporate presentation. Executives’ confidence hinges on Bretana’s low operating costs and efficiency. The company’s primary field produces oil cheaply; it is growing its production rates at a double-digit clip (PetroTal expects 2025 production to increase by 24% year-over-year) and generates more cash flows, supporting those distributions.
Undervalued, volatile, and very much a penny stock
Here’s where PetroTal stock gets really interesting for value stock hunters. The undervalued TSX energy stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 4.1. You’re paying roughly $4.10 for every dollar of profit PetroTal is expected to earn in the next 12 months. Stack that against the broader North American energy sector average P/E of 12.1 – where you’d pay over $12 for that same dollar of earnings – and the valuation gap is stark. Metrics like Enterprise Value to EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization – a key measure of operating earnings and cash flow) also paint a picture of a company potentially trading well below its intrinsic value.
However, despite its 300% total gain in five years, PetroTal stock hasn’t shaken off its penny stock label. Penny stocks are famous for their above-average volatility. Moreover, the stock could swing wildly, influenced heavily by crude oil commodity prices.
The year 2025 has been a rollercoaster for oil, so far. Prices plunged from a June high above US$78 WTI (West Texas Intermediate) to trade under $70 by mid-July, a dramatic move from April’s lows near $56. The culprits? A toxic cocktail of disruptive trade policies, simmering geopolitical tensions, and outright international conflicts. For a company like PetroTal, whose fortunes are directly tied to the daily whims of the oil market, this volatility is a core business risk.
Buy, Sell, or Hold in July?
Selling PetroTal stock in July seems premature given its compelling valuation, the still-substantial dividend, and the potential for operational updates in the upcoming earnings in August. The energy stock’s positive momentum year-to-date also argues against exiting now unless your risk tolerance has fundamentally changed.
For investors without a position in the TSX energy stock but with above-average risk tolerance and a belief in sustained oil prices above US$60, the current PetroTal stock price (at a significant valuation discount) and juicy dividend yield could present an opportunity to accumulate a small position in July 2025.
If you already own the penny stock, a Hold feels like the most prudent stance for most existing investors in late July, just weeks before the second quarter report. Use this time to watch oil prices and prepare for the earnings release.
