TC Energy (TSX: TRP) might not have the same market cap flash as Canada’s biggest energy names, but it’s quietly building a case to be one of the TSX’s most reliable performers over the next decade. The dividend stock has been on a steady climb, up more than 26% in the past year, as it executes on a long pipeline of growth projects, both literally and figuratively.
With operations stretching across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, TC Energy has been delivering record natural gas volumes, expanding its reach into LNG markets, and running power assets like Bruce Power with nearly flawless uptime. This isn’t the kind of dividend stock that swings for the fences on speculative bets. It’s one that grinds out consistent growth with a focus on stable, long-term cash flow.
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What happened?
The last 12 months have seen a meaningful step up in performance. In the second quarter of 2025, comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) hit $2.6 billion, up from $2.3 billion a year earlier. Deliveries on the NGTL System reached an all-time high, with Western Canadian receipts up 7% year over year.
LNG-related deliveries rose six percent, and Mexican pipeline volumes hit records of their own. Even with a capital-intensive business model, TC Energy has been bringing projects online ahead of schedule and under budget, placing $8.5 billion worth of capital projects into service this year at about 15% below expected costs. In the capital-heavy world of infrastructure, that kind of execution is rare.
More to come
The project pipeline remains healthy. The Southeast Gateway pipeline is now in service, generating toll revenue from Mexico’s state utility, and regulatory approvals have opened the door for additional customers. In the U.S., the East Lateral XPress project is feeding Gulf Coast LNG markets, while expansions on the Columbia Gulf system are already being upsized to support data centre growth.
Back home, the dividend stock reached final investment decisions on hundreds of millions in NGTL expansions to meet growing demand. Management’s updated guidance now pegs 2025 EBITDA at $10.8 to $11.0 billion, higher than earlier estimates, even as comparable earnings per share (EPS) are expected to dip from last year due to asset sales and capital-allocation timing.
Cash coming in
Dividend investors have long gravitated toward TC Energy, and the payout story remains strong. The forward yield sits just under 5%, backed by predictable, regulated and contracted cash flows. The payout ratio, while elevated at around 85%, is manageable given the stability of the dividend stock’s revenue base.
With much of its growth capex targeted at low-risk, demand-driven projects, the potential for steady dividend growth is intact. The risk, of course, lies in the company’s hefty debt load of over $59 billion, which management will need to balance with funding new projects. Rising interest rates have made refinancing more expensive, but the dividend stock’s investment-grade credit rating and diversified revenue sources help keep that risk in check. For now, a $7,000 investment could bring in $336 annually from dividends alone.
| COMPANY | RECENT PRICE | NUMBER OF SHARES | DIVIDEND | TOTAL PAYOUT | FREQUENCY | TOTAL INVESTMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRP | $70.20 | 99 | $3.40 | $336.60 | Quarterly | $6,949.80 |
Bottom line
What makes TC Energy interesting compared to mega caps isn’t just its asset mix. It’s the runway for growth in natural gas demand. The dividend stock is strategically positioned in North America’s biggest growth markets for gas, from LNG exports on the Gulf Coast to industrial and power demand in Mexico.
The increasing integration of renewables into power grids is creating a greater need for natural gas as a stable base load source, and TC Energy is already moving to capture that demand with its expansions. Add in the potential for long-term power generation growth through Bruce Power and other assets, and you’ve got a diversified cash flow engine that isn’t as dependent on any single commodity price.
Over the next decade, this combination of operational discipline, project visibility, and exposure to rising gas demand could allow TC Energy to outpace some of the TSX’s biggest names in total return. It may not have the flashiest story or the biggest dividend. Yet if management keeps hitting its targets and bringing projects online ahead of schedule, the steady compounding effect could surprise a lot of investors. For those willing to look past the market-cap leaderboard, TC Energy is an underdog worth watching closely.
