TSX’s Record Run: Is There More Upside Ahead?

Whether the TSX’s record run extends or not, two stocks are excellent year-end buys.

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Key Points

  • The TSX sits at ~30,242.90 (YTD +22.2%) with a supportive Bank of Canada rate cut, and Brookfield Renewable (TSX:BEP.UN) and TMX Group (TSX:X) are flagged as solid year‑end buys for income and stability.
  • Brookfield Renewable (BEP.UN) — $42.43, YTD +35.7%, ~4.68% yield, 97% renewables and contracted cash flows; TMX (X) — $49.62, Q3 revenue +18%/net income +46%, heavy listing/ETF activity and a modest 1.77% dividend.
  • 5 stocks our experts like better than [Brookfield Renewable] >

Trump’s repeated tariff threats since April 2025 have not upset investor sentiment or appetite for Canadian stocks. Instead, the TSX’s performance has gone from good to better and best, including multiple record highs until October. Entering November, the index’s year-to-date gain is 22.2% and sits at 30,242.90 points.

A year-end market correction is possible, although there’s still room to climb. The Bank of Canada announced a 0.25% rate cut, the fourth this year, on October 29. Inflation has been contained, and consumers tend to spend more in a low-rate environment, spurring economic activity. Moreover, a rate reduction supports stocks.

Brookfield Renewable Partners (TSX:BEP.UN) and TMX Group (TSX:X) are solid choices for year-end buyers. The former is a clean and green stock with visible long-term growth potential, while the latter is the TSX’s operator.

Exceptionally strong demand

Brookfield Renewable has outperformed the broader market thus far this year. This $10.5 billion company has a diversified portfolio of power assets, of which 97% are renewables. The reach is global, spanning five continents. Its CEO, Connor Teskey, maintains a robust outlook due to the exceptionally strong demand for power.

Investors can earn in two ways from BEP.UN: dividends and price appreciation. At $42.43 per share, current investors enjoy a 35.7% year-to-date return on top of the lucrative 4.7% dividend yield. Dividend sustainability is not an issue because of the highly contracted and durable cash flows. The company targets a 12% to 15% long-term total return to shareholders.

X Marks the Spot

TMX Group’s contribution to the TSX, particularly this banner year, is unquantifiable. The $14.8 billion financial services company operates five exchanges and a trading system for the Canadian fixed income market. Senior equity issuers list on the TSX.

The business is technology-enabled, diversified, global, and focused on profitable growth. In Q3 2025, revenue increased 18% to $418.6 million versus Q3 2024, while net income attributable to equity holders climbed 46% year-over-year to $120.5 million.

Its CEO, John McKenzie, describes TSX’s first nine months’ performance as exceptional.  He said the strong revenue growth and the 23% year-over-year increase in operating income to $565.3 million during the period reflect a balanced business model. “We are working to create competitive advantages for clients around the world and further strengthen our value proposition for years to come,” he added.

One of TMX’s transformational objectives is to generate more than 50% of its total revenue outside of Canada. Developing capabilities to list and support exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expand reach across markets in Europe, Canada, and the United States is an ongoing concern.

McKenzie said, “We haven’t had a lot of traditional IPOs, but we’ve had 54 new companies come to the markets this year. Another healthy sign is the 272 new listings, including 200 ETFs. If you invest today, X trades at $49.62 per share and pays a modest but safe 1.8% dividend.

Portfolio stability

Brookfield Renewable and TMX are ideal prospects for investors seeking portfolio stability. The respective businesses can endure downturns and provide steady income streams.   

Fool contributor Christopher Liew has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Brookfield Renewable Partners and TMX Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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