The demand for energy is forecast to grow steadily over the next two decades, driven by the artificial intelligence megatrend and global economic growth.
In this article, I have identified two blue-chip dividend stocks: Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) and Brookfield Renewable Partners (TSX:BEP.UN), both poised to deliver inflation-beating returns to long-term investors.
Over the last 10 years, CNQ stock has returned over 500% to shareholders after adjusting for dividend reinvestments. Comparatively, BEP stock has returned “just” 238% since January 2016.
Let’s see which TSX dividend stock is still a good buy right now.
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Is CNQ stock still a better buy than BEP in 2026?
Canadian Natural Resources and Brookfield Renewable Partners represent two distinct approaches to energy investing, each delivering strong results in Q3 2025.
- Canadian Natural reported record quarterly production of 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3, up 19% from the prior year.
- The company’s oil sands operations performed well, producing 581,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude oil with utilization rates of 104% and industry-leading operating costs of just US$21 per barrel.
- The recent swap transaction with Shell Canada added 31,000 barrels per day of zero-decline bitumen production while enhancing operational efficiency across mining operations.
- The company generated US$3.9 billion in adjusted funds flow during the quarter and returned US$1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Year-to-date shareholder returns totaled $6.2 billion, contributing to 16% per-share production growth compared to 2024. Canadian Natural has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years at a compound annual growth rate of 21%, maintaining a debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) ratio of just 0.9 times.
Brookfield Renewable Partners delivered funds from operations of US$302 million, up 10% year-over-year, driven by contracted inflation-linked cash flows and strong execution across its global portfolio.
BEP’s hydroelectric segment generated US$119 million in funds from operations, up over 20% from the prior year, driven by growing demand for baseload power from hyperscalers and data center operators.
A key development was Brookfield’s strategic partnership with the U.S. government to build at least US$80 billion worth of new Westinghouse nuclear reactors.
This agreement positions BEP to benefit from decades of reactor construction, fuel supply contracts, and maintenance services. The company also closed US$2.8 billion in asset sales in Q3 while advancing contracts to deliver 4,000 gigawatt hours annually.
Are the TSX dividend stocks undervalued?
Given consensus price target estimates, CNQ stock trades at a 4% discount in January 2026. If we account for its 4.9% dividend yield, cumulative returns could be closer to 9% over the next 12 months.
The dividend yield for BEP stock is higher at 5.5%. Moreover, the TSX dividend stock trades at 17%, suggesting total returns could be around 22%.
Canadian Natural offers stable cash flows, consistent dividends, and leverage to oil prices. Brookfield Renewable provides exposure to renewable energy growth, nuclear power expansion, and long-term contracted cash flows.
The choice depends on whether investors prefer traditional energy with immediate returns or clean energy with transformational growth potential.
