1 Magnificent Canadian Stock Down 22% to Buy and Hold Forever

Here’s why Kinaxis (TSX:KXS) could be the absolute best opportunity available to Canadian investors in Q1 2026.

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Key Points
  • Kinaxis, a Canadian supply chain management software company, is recognized as a key growth stock opportunity despite a 22% decline over the past year, bolstered by rising demand for its AI-integrated solutions amid global trade and demand volatility.
  • With strong financial performance, including a 17% growth in annual recurring revenue and a robust SaaS model, Kinaxis remains well-positioned for significant recovery and growth, offering attractive upside potential from its current stock price levels.

Despite the TSX continuing to make new all-time highs and hover around all-time high levels at the time of writing, certain stocks do appear to be relative value plays. For those thinking about high-growth stocks and ways to play such long-term trends, a few names pop out to me as key investing opportunities in 2026 and for the long haul.

Here’s one key Canadian growth stock I think could be an excellent opportunity, down more than 22% over the past year at the time of writing.

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Source: Getty Images

Kinaxis

Shares of Canadian supply chain management software company Kinaxis (TSX:KXS) have been on a rough ride of late.

The chart above highlights what I’m talking about. Despite being a niche leader in cloud-based supply chain planning, there’s been a tech-driven sell-off of companies tied to the AI revolution that’s been rather discriminate of late. Accordingly, given Kinaxis’ ties to this trend with its AI integrations and growth prospects, this is a stock that’s been hit.

That said, as a leader in the supply chain software sector, Kinaxis’ ability to help global enterprises orchestrate complex operations in real time should benefit investors looking to capitalize on a world still grappling with geopolitical tensions, shifting trade routes, and rising demand volatility.

In short, the need for better, faster supply chain decisions is secular, not cyclical. That long-term demand backdrop is showing up in the numbers. Kinaxis’ annual recurring revenue has climbed to about US$407 million, up 17% year over year, while its remaining performance obligations sit around US$846 million, with SaaS RPO at roughly US$810 million. This is precisely the kind of forward visibility most software companies would love to have.

Why Kinaxis is a fundamental growth story to consider

Recent quarterly results reinforce this story. In Q3 2025, Kinaxis grew total revenue 11% year over year, with SaaS revenue up 17%, and boosted adjusted EBITDA 13%, for a strong 25% gross margin. Additionally, free cash flow for the last 12 months has approached a near-20% margin, even after one-off items. This highlights a business that can both grow and throw off cash.

The company’s management team has raised or tightened guidance more than once, now calling for 2025 total revenue of US$535 to US$550 million and SaaS growth of roughly the mid-teens, alongside an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24–26%. For a company whose stock is slumping, the operating trend looks remarkably resilient.

Why this is an opportunity to consider right now  

Even after Kinaxis’ recent stock price decline, this is a top Canadian growth stock that now trades at a much more reasonable multiple. Yes, this is a stock with a premium multiple. However, the company’s asset-light, sticky SaaS model and above-average growth is deserving of such a multiple.

When investors rotate out of richly-valued tech, names like Kinaxis often get hit first. That can happen regardless of how excellent a given company’s fundamentals are. And it’s important to note that analysts remain broadly constructive on Kinaxis, with a consensus “Buy” rating and an average price target near $224.

I think this implies substantial upside from recent levels around the $130 level. In my view, that disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals is where opportunity lives.

Fool contributor Chris MacDonald has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Kinaxis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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