Many investors remain cautious despite the recent relief rallies. April 2026 could see a more painful downturn if the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran drags on for several more weeks. However, the picture is not entirely dark. These geopolitical tensions present buying opportunities that could form the foundation for the eventual recovery.
The technology sector, for instance, has underperformed since the start of the year, making Shopify (TSX: SHOP) a high-growth option at a bargain. Meanwhile, Aecon Group (TSX: ARE) in the industrial sector has outperformed the broader market, and its upward momentum seems unstoppable. Consider buying these TSX stocks before the next market recovery takes hold.
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Value play
Negative market sentiment and profit-taking, not weak business fundamentals, caused Shopify’s 29% decline over the last three months. The current share price of $165.37 is a good entry point. Note that the $214.7 billion e-commerce champion is the TSX’s third-largest company by market capitalization. It has the size and scale to withstand headwinds.
According to its President, Harley Finkelstein, Shopify was at full throttle in 2025, ushering in a new era of AI commerce. “2026 will be the year of the builders, and we’ll be powering them – from first sale to full scale,” he added. Q4 2025 also marked 10 consecutive quarters of double-digit free cash flow (FCF) margins.
Shopify has achieved a steady state following the sale of the logistics business in 2023 and shift to a leaner model. Net income in 2025 fell 39% to US$1.2 billion, but it is not the complete story. In the same year, revenue and FCF increased 30% and 25.7% year-over-year to US$11.5 billion and US$2 billion, respectively.
Jeff Hoffmeister, Shopify’s Chief Financial Officer, said, “We ended 2025 with strength across all merchant sizes, regions, and channels, setting us up well for 2026.” Notably, the 17% FCF margin shows the business is generating more actual cash than ever.
On year-end 2025, the Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2 billion. Hoffmeister further said, “We are launching this share repurchase program from a position of financial and operating strength.” Shopify plans to prioritize growth while remaining disciplined, flexible, and focused on long-term shareholder value. Expect SHOP to reclaim its tech leadership when the TSX rebounds.
Industrial anchor
Aecon Group’s record results in Q4 and full-year 2025 are reflected in the stock’s performance. Its President and CEO, Jean-Louis Servranckx, described 2025 as a transformative year, highlighted by strategic acquisitions and expansion in the U.S. and other international markets.
The $2.9 billion engineering and construction company will handle most critical projects under the federal government’s $115 billion infrastructure plan. Its pipeline of project opportunities, including the $10.8 billion record backlog, covers critical resource development, defence, mass transit infrastructure, power generation, and water.
Aecon expects 2026 revenue to exceed the record $5.4 billion revenue in 2025. At $42.76 per share, current investors enjoy a market-beating 37.3% year-to-date gain and an increased dividend yield of 1.8%. ARE also boasts a 14-year dividend growth streak.
Balanced combination
A resolution of the Iran conflict (hope it comes soon) will trigger a rapid rebound. If you’re looking to position ahead of a broad market recovery, Shopify is an excellent value play, while Aecon is a suitable industrial anchor.
