Oil Shock, Rate Decision Ahead: 3 TSX Stocks Built for Both

Oil fell hard last week on hopes that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz might resume. It’s the kind of move that makes investors feel like the crisis is over — but it probably isn’t. Most likely, the supply shock hasn’t been solved; it’s been paused.

The Bank of Canada is adding its own layer of uncertainty to the markets. With its policy rate at 2.25% and the next rate decision scheduled for April 29, markets are pricing near-certainty of a hold — but a hold isn’t the same as relief. Elevated energy costs keep inflation from fully cooling, and inflation keeps borrowing costs where they are.

That combination of factors tends to punish expensive growth stocks and reward businesses with durable, contracted cash flow. If you’re looking to invest in some, here are three that fit the bill.

Pembina Pipeline

Pembina Pipeline (TSX:PPL) doesn’t need to call the direction of oil to make money. It operates pipelines, gas processing, fractionation, and export infrastructure — the kind of assets that earn fee-based revenue whether crude is running hot or cooling off. That structure is genuinely useful when prices are swinging in both directions inside the same month.

Over the past year, Pembina kept building out its longer-term growth story. It secured a 12-year agreement with Ovintiv for Cedar LNG in December, and Cedar LNG marked one year since its final investment decision in June — a project that gives Pembina visible cash flow growth well beyond the current cycle. For full-year 2025, it reported adjusted EBITDA of $4.3 billion and earnings of $1.7 billion. Those figures were down from the prior year, but the business still produced substantial profit and kept its dividend intact. At roughly 24 times trailing earnings and a yield of 4.6%, Pembina isn’t cheap in absolute terms — but for a large midstream franchise with scale and contracted volumes, the valuation is defensible, and the monthly dividend makes it easy to stay patient.

Gibson Energy

Gibson Energy (TSX:GEI) is a more focused version of the same thesis — liquids infrastructure, storage, processing, and terminals that generate contracted cash flows rather than commodity-price bets. In early 2026, it added the Chauvin infrastructure acquisition and a Hardisty connection project, keeping its growth tied to customer contracts and physical assets rather than market sentiment.

For full-year 2025, Gibson posted adjusted EBITDA of $580.7 million, distributable cash flow of $337.1 million, and net income of $197.6 million. The main thing to watch is leverage: Net debt to adjusted EBITDA sits at 3.9 times, which leaves less room for error if conditions tighten. That’s a real risk and worth acknowledging. Still, the stock offers a forward yield near 5.8% and a market cap around $5.2 billion, and as long as new projects keep adding contracted volumes, the income case holds. For investors who want infrastructure exposure with a yield that actually moves the needle, Gibson earns a look.

Wheaton Precious Metals

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM) plays a different role here. It isn’t a pipeline or a terminal — it’s a streaming company, which means it finances mines in exchange for the right to buy precious metals at low fixed costs. That model tends to shine precisely when oil shocks and rate fears push investors toward gold and silver as stores of value. With the Middle East still unsettled and the BoC holding rates steady amid elevated energy costs, the conditions that make precious metals appealing aren’t going away quickly.

Wheaton reported record 2025 revenue of $2.3 billion, record net earnings of $1.5 billion, and record operating cash flow of $1.9 billion, with $1.2 billion in cash on hand. A major $4.3 billion silver streaming deal tied to Antamina — one of the largest moves in the space in recent memory — adds contracted production growth, and the company’s long-term outlook points to roughly 50% growth to 1.2 million gold equivalent ounces by 2030. At roughly 37 times trailing earnings, you are paying for quality here. But quality precious-metals exposure with this kind of balance sheet is exactly what investors reach for when the world gets jumpy — and the world is currently pretty jumpy.

Bottom line

If you’re a long-term TSX investor who wants to stay invested through an oil shock and a rate environment that isn’t budging, this trio covers the ground well. Pembina gives you midstream scale and a monthly dividend. Gibson gives you infrastructure income with a higher yield. Wheaton gives you a hedge against the very macro forces this article is about. With $7,000 invested in any one of them, you’re building a position in a business that has already proven it can generate cash in a difficult environment — not just hoping one will.

The ceasefire may hold and oil may drift lower from here. But the structural tension in the Middle East hasn’t been resolved, rates aren’t moving until at least April 29, and the conditions that make these three businesses useful haven’t changed. That’s a combination worth owning before the next headline lands.