The most expensive mistake investors make often looks remarkably responsible. They wait for stocks to become cheaper, headlines to become friendlier, and the economy to stop behaving like it drank three espressos. Unfortunately, the perfect moment usually arrives only after prices have already climbed.
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Don’t delay
That delay carries a real cost. Turning $7,000 into $70,000 requires a tenfold return. At an average annual return of approximately 12.2%, the journey would take 20 years. Waiting five years to begin could push the same milestone five years farther into the future, which is why time may be more valuable than finding a slightly better purchase price.
A Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) makes that compounding considerably more powerful. The 2026 TFSA dollar limit is $7,000, although Canadians should confirm their personal room before contributing. Unused room carries forward, investments can grow tax-free, and withdrawals are generally added back as new room the following calendar year. Growth inside the account doesn’t consume additional contribution room.
Investors shouldn’t confuse “tax-free” with “risk-free,” however. A loss inside the account won’t create replacement room, making quality especially important when choosing what to hold inside a TFSA. The ideal candidate needs a long runway, improving cash flow, and a business capable of earning considerably more a decade from now.
Can’t stop SHOP
Shopify (TSX: SHOP) checks those boxes despite its recent rally. The company provides the technology businesses use to build stores, accept payments, manage inventory, arrange shipping, borrow money, and sell online or in person. Shopify stock earns subscription revenue and takes a slice of the commerce flowing through its platform, allowing it to grow alongside its merchants.
Artificial intelligence (AI) once looked like a threat to that model. If shoppers could ask an AI assistant to find and purchase products, perhaps they wouldn’t visit traditional online stores. Shopify stock responded by positioning itself as the infrastructure beneath those transactions, letting merchants sell through search engines, social platforms, physical stores, and increasingly AI agents.
The latest quarter suggests that strategy is working. AI-driven traffic and orders reaching Shopify merchants each tripled year over year, while daily merchant use of its Sidekick AI assistant increased 3.6 times. Instead of making Shopify obsolete, AI may be creating another storefront for the company to power.
Grow even more
That opportunity is already reaching the financial statements. Second-quarter revenue grew 34% year over year, while Shopify stock produced an 18% free-cash-flow margin. Free cash flow is the money remaining after operating and capital expenses, giving the company room to develop products, repurchase shares, and fund future growth without continually rattling shareholders’ piggy banks.
Shopify stock doesn’t need to rise tenfold next Tuesday. It needs to keep expanding commerce volume, collecting more payment revenue, attracting larger companies, and improving profitability over many years. That’s how compound growth turns an ordinary contribution into an extraordinary balance.
The valuation creates the obvious wrinkle. Shopify stock trades around 100 times trailing earnings. A $7,000 investment would purchase approximately 33 full shares, leaving roughly $136 uninvested before commissions. That price leaves little patience for slowing growth, weaker consumer spending, or AI infrastructure costs that pressure margins. Still, here’s how long it might take to reach that $70,000 amount should shares continue to grow by the same 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
| YEAR | PROJECTED SHARE PRICE | NUMBER OF SHARES | TOTAL VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial investment | $208.00 | 33 | $6,864.00 |
| Year 1 | $302.54 | 33 | $9,983.69 |
| Year 2 | $440.04 | 33 | $14,521.27 |
| Year 3 | $640.04 | 33 | $21,121.19 |
| Year 4 | $930.93 | 33 | $30,720.78 |
| Year 5 | $1,354.04 | 33 | $44,683.37 |
| Year 6 | $1,969.45 | 33 | $64,991.96 |
| Year 7 | $2,864.57 | 33 | $94,530.80 |
Bottom line
Volatility comes with the ticket. Shopify stock could fall sharply after disappointing guidance even while its long-term business remains healthy. Investors who can’t tolerate that possibility may prefer a diversified portfolio or a smaller initial position.
For investors with 20 years, sufficient TFSA room, and an appetite for growth, I’d still begin now. Shopify stock’s price won’t climb in a neat staircase, yet its role in global and AI-driven commerce could become considerably larger. Giving that growth two decades to compound may ultimately prove more valuable than waiting for the market to send a prettier invitation.
