A High Yield Won’t Save You From a Dividend Cut: These 2 Payouts Look Safer

A big dividend yield can feel like a bargain sign. Sometimes it’s actually a warning label.

Suppose a stock pays $1 annually and trades at $10. Its yield is 10%. If the business cuts that dividend in half, the yield on your original investment drops to 5%, and the share price could fall as income investors head for the exits. Suddenly, that “income stock” delivers less income and a capital loss. Awesome.

Before chasing yield, I’d check three things: whether earnings or cash flow cover the payout, whether the balance sheet can handle a rough year, and whether management is still investing enough to protect future earnings. That discipline is central to dividend investing in Canada.

Lower yield, less baggage

Payout ratios also need context. A regulated utility can reasonably distribute around 70% of earnings because its revenue is relatively predictable. A bank generally needs a lower ratio because loan losses can jump during a recession.

Using those industry-specific tests, two comparatively modest payouts look more dependable than many of the TSX’s eye-popping yields.

FTS

Fortis (TSX:FTS) owns nine regulated electric and gas utilities serving 3.5 million customers. Since people rarely celebrate a power outage by cancelling electricity altogether, its cash flow tends to be unusually steady.

The company has raised its annual dividend for 52 consecutive years. Its current $0.64 quarterly payment equals $2.56 annually and yields roughly 3.1% near recent prices. Fortis’ 2025 adjusted payout ratio was 70.4%, while management continues to target annual dividend growth of 4% to 6% through 2030.

The growth engine is a $28.8 billion capital plan expected to expand its rate base by around 7% annually. More regulated assets should support earnings and dividend growth. The catch is price. Shares recently traded around $83.48, above a recent $74 fair-value estimate. Financing such a large plan also leaves Fortis exposed to interest rates and regulatory decisions.

TD

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) offers a different type of protection. Its $1.12 quarterly dividend annualizes to $4.48, producing a yield of approximately 2.7% near recent prices.

TD stock’s second-quarter adjusted earnings per share climbed 21% year over year to $2.38. Its common-equity tier-one capital ratio was 14.3%, comfortably above the cited 11.5% regulatory minimum. A normalized payout ratio in the upper-40% to lower-50% range would leave meaningful room for credit losses and reinvestment.

TD stock still has work ahead. U.S. anti-money-laundering remediation remains expensive, and the American asset cap restricts growth. Valuation deserves caution, too. Shares around $168.87 sit well above a recent $136 fair-value estimate. Still, its capital position and diversified Canadian franchise make the dividend one of the stronger payouts among Canadian blue-chip stocks.

Bottom line

Fortis and TD stock won’t win a yield contest. That’s rather the point. Their payouts are supported by regulated growth, bank capital, and sensible coverage instead of hope.

I’d watch the valuations and buy gradually, because even a sturdy dividend can’t rescue an investor who pays any price.