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BlackBerry Stock Is Up More Than 150%: Here’s the Number I’d Check Before Buying

BlackBerry’s huge 2026 rally has turned its turnaround into an AI-and-QNX growth story, but now it must prove it with cash.

Amy Legate-Wolfe

Author Bio Amy became interested in investing in 2018 after having her first daughter. After receiving a masters degree in journalism from Western University, she became frustrated that the finance industry remained a confusing place for Canadians like her: new parents, millennials, and other young people who needed to understand their finances. Now, Amy focuses on tech companies and renewable energy for growth opportunities, coupling that with long-term investing strategies and equities. She also provides investors with a daily newsletter, Canada Stock Digest, for daily market updates. Her work can also be found at Canada's National Observer, where she writes on the business side of climate action. Before joining Motley Fool Canada, Amy wrote for major news organizations including HuffPost, CTVNews.ca, and CBC. When she’s not researching investing strategies, Amy’s time is pretty much monopolized by her two wild daughters, but in what little spare time she has she loves to do yoga, go on walks with her dog, and travel with her husband. Social Media Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Canada Stock Digest. Favorite Investment Quote “October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” – Mark Twain

Published September 11, 3:45 pm EDT

Key Points

BlackBerry is improving, with revenue up and QNX growing, but investors should focus on operating cash flow.
Management is targeting about US$100 million of operating cash flow in fiscal 2027, which is the key proof point.
At a richer valuation after the rally, the stock needs to keep delivering, so buying gradually makes more sense than chasing.

BlackBerry (TSX: BB) finally delivered the sort of rally long-term shareholders once had to squint at old charts to remember.

BlackBerry stock climbed more than 150% from its 52-week low at points during 2026, even after its recent pullback. Investors are no longer pricing BlackBerry stock as a permanently stalled turnaround. They’re increasingly treating it as an artificial-intelligence (AI) and embedded-software growth story.

The business earned some of that renewed enthusiasm. Revenue is growing, profitability has improved, and QNX is finding opportunities beyond vehicles. Still, a better business can become an expensive stock surprisingly quickly.

Before buying, I’d check one number above all others: operating cash flow.

Canadian dollars in a magnifying glass — Source: Getty Images

The number is US$100 million

BlackBerry expects to generate approximately US$100 million in operating cash flow during fiscal 2027. The company has spent years presenting investors with promising technology that didn’t consistently turn into cash.

The latest quarter showed real progress. First-quarter revenue increased 26% year over year to US$152.9 million. QNX revenue climbed approximately 26% to US$72.3 million, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 144% to US$36.3 million.

BlackBerry also produced US$4.6 million of operating cash flow. Excluding the fiscal 2024 patent sale, that represented its first cash-positive fiscal first quarter in nine years. That’s encouraging. However, US$4.6 million is still a small first step toward US$100 million.

Cash flow

QNX provides foundational operating software for vehicles, robotics, medical devices, industrial equipment, and other systems that can’t afford to freeze halfway through a job. Its software is already installed in more than 275 million vehicles. As automobiles require more code for digital cockpits, advanced driver-assistance systems, connectivity, and centralized computing, BlackBerry may earn more software revenue per vehicle.

Yet design wins don’t immediately become revenue. A customer may select QNX years before the corresponding vehicle or machine enters production. The royalty backlog, therefore, needs to convert into sales, and those sales ultimately need to produce cash.

That distinction is important when researching Canadian AI stocks. AI exposure can make a presentation exciting. Cash flow determines whether shareholders eventually benefit from it.

Valuation demands delivery

BlackBerry stock recently traded near $10.68, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $6.3 billion. That remains far below the stock’s 2026 high, but considerably above the $4.35 low that helped create the eye-catching rally.

A recent analyst estimate placed BlackBerry’s fair value at $7.40 per share. Fair-value estimates are opinions rather than finish lines, but that figure suggests investors are already paying for meaningful improvement.

BlackBerry stock also trades near 40 times estimated forward earnings. That multiple can work if QNX sustains strong growth, margins expand, and operating cash flow approaches management’s target. It becomes much harder to defend if the US$100 million forecast slips into the following year.

What would make me buy?

I’d want second-quarter results to show continued QNX growth and operating cash flow moving clearly toward the full-year target. Management’s second-quarter forecast calls for between break-even and US$10 million of operating cash flow, so the larger contribution may arrive later in the year.

That timing doesn’t automatically undermine the thesis. It does leave little room for another delay. Investors learning how to choose growth stocks should also distinguish between a starter position and a full commitment. BlackBerry stock’s technology opportunity is credible, but its valuation and history make gradual buying more sensible than chasing the rally.

Bottom line

BlackBerry stock looks better than it did when the stock sat near its yearly low. QNX is growing, profitability has improved, and physical AI gives the company a compelling new narrative.

Now that narrative must produce cash. The US$100 million operating cash flow target is the number I’d watch through the remaining fiscal 2027 results. If BlackBerry stock reaches it while maintaining QNX growth, today’s valuation may become easier to justify. If cash flow falls short, investors may discover that a 150% rally priced in the turnaround while the turnaround was still in progress.