Oh, what an eventful September it’s been for the TSX Index and, of course, the S&P 500, which melted up in Monday’s session in response to a surge in AI-related stocks, all while oil prices marched lower. As you’d imagine, things weren’t as bright north of the border, thanks in part to the pressure on oil prices and the hit that some names within the energy sector (and yes, the TSX Index is heavy on energy names) took on the day.
Despite the impact of lower oil, though, the TSX Index still posted a very respectable gain of just north of 0.5%. Though less impressive, it was compared to the likes of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 exchange, which nearly surged 3% in a single session.
But, at the very least, it was a decent session for Canadian investors, many of whom likely have exposure on both sides of the border (the U.S. for tech and the TSX Index for value and dividends within financials and energy). With energy producers taking a big step back, questions linger as to whether it makes sense to chase what’s hot again (think tech and battered software) or stay the course with some of the lesser-favoured names on the market.
In my view, it makes sense to treat each opportunity on a case-by-case basis, rather than seeking to chase a trend on the way up, or worse, attempting to catch a falling knife in a name that’s experiencing moat erosion or a decay of the fundamentals. In this piece, we’ll look at one notable winner, a loser, and what the stage could be like for the fourth and final quarter of 2026.
September, a historically volatile month, is nearing its close, but don’t expect the chop to wind down as well, especially as volatility (in both directions) looks to arrive in full force.
Source: Getty Images
Winner: HIVE Digital Technologies
When it comes to the past week’s winners, I think it’s tough to look past HIVE Digital Technologies (TSX: HIVE), which clocked in a near-20% surge. Indeed, the crypto-mining play really had a moment to shine, thanks in part to the nice relief run in cryptocurrencies.
While HIVE remains a premier way to ride on the back of the momentum in Bitcoin, I do think that AI and high-performance computing (HPC) represent a huge area where the firm could diversify into another red-hot growth area, one that has a lower correlation with how the crypto markets are doing.
Either way, it was a big week for shares of HIVE, which remain down around 85% from all-time highs. As to whether the parabolic move will be sustainable this time around, though, remains the big question. Personally, I struggle to value the firm at these levels. Either way, moving into the space, I think, is a better use for the firm’s impressive hardware and infrastructure expertise.
Loser: Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ) took quite a hit, falling close to 5% in the past week. Of course, it’s hardly the biggest loser, but in terms of buyable large-caps worth pursuing on the way down, I do think CNQ stock is a name to watch. With the recent retreat in oil prices tied to potential talks regarding the situation in the Middle East, perhaps CNQ stock might be in for more pain.
Either way, though, the energy juggernaut looks way too cheap at 12 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E). If a correction hits (a 10% drop), I think holding one’s nose and buying while the yield, currently at 3.6%, starts to swell again. CNQ is a cash cow, one that’s sensitive to oil price moves, but, nevertheless, a well-run operator that tends to reward long-term investors who buy the dips.
