Gold Stocks: When is Enough Enough?

Is it time to just plug your nose and buy these goats?

| More on:
The Motley Fool

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s premium investing services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

With yesterday’s plundering, gold stocks firmly re-entrenched themselves as the goats of the Canadian market.  Have a look at today’s print of the 52-week low list.  The who’s who of Canada’s gold space are all represented.

While pinpointing a “value” for gold itself is impossible, it’s safe to assume that it’s not worthless.  And as long as gold carries some value, so too will the company’s that mine it.  Therefore, there’s a floor for these stocks.  Identifying this floor however is rather difficult given the valuation difficulties that pertain to the underlying commodity.  MS Excel might refer to this as a “circular reference”.

We can however put the current valuation of the miners into perspective.  If you believe in mean reversion, gold mining stocks are screaming buys.  As the table below indicates, all 5 of these mid/senior tier names are trading waaaay below their 10-year average book value multiples.

Not only that.  They’re trading below book value, period.  This implies that the market doesn’t believe in the value that these companies have ascribed to their gold producing assets.

Write-downs are no doubt coming.  However, assuming mean reversion, the assumed size of these expected write-downs appears rather astronomical.

As indicated in the table, assuming Barrick’s “natural” book multiple is 2.5, the market is implying that the company is going to write-off 73% of its book value!  That’s more than $18 billion of the company’s current book value of $25 billion.

These companies hardly deserve credit for preserving shareholder value in recent years, but this seems rather excessive.

Here’s the table:

Company Name

Current P/B

10 Yr. Avg P/B

Implied BV*

% of Current BV

Agnico-Eagle (TSX:AEM)

1.3

3.1

$1,471.9

42.5%

Yamana (TSX:YRI)

0.9

2.2

$3,307.1

41.8%

Goldcorp (TSX:G)

0.8

2.6

$7,479.8

32.4%

Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX)

0.7

2.5

$6,846.8

27.1%

Kinross (TSX:K)

0.6

1.8

$3,304.6

33.0%

*BV = Book Value      Source:  Capital IQ

Foolish Takeaway

Given their current valuations, if the price of gold can demonstrate an ability to hold at current levels, these gold mining stocks are due for a serious bout of multiple expansion.  However, with the Fed expecting to pull back on quantitative easing, it’s challenging to believe that the price of the underlying commodity will stabilize anytime soon.

Tired of your investments being tied to the wild fluctuations of an underlying commodity?  Then click here now to download our special FREE report “3 U.S. Companies That Every Canadian Should Own”.

The Motley Fool’s purpose is to help the world invest, better. Click here now for your free subscription to Take Stock, The Motley Fool Canada’s free investing newsletter. Packed with stock ideas and investing advice, it is essential reading for anyone looking to build and grow their wealth in the years ahead.

Fool contributor Iain Butler is short $14 June 2013 put options on Yamana, $32 July 2013 put options on Goldcorp and owns shares of Yamana Gold and Barrick Gold.  The Motley Fool has no position in any stocks mentioned at this time.

Should you invest $1,000 in Barrick Gold right now?

Before you buy stock in Barrick Gold, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor Canada analyst team just identified what they believe are the Top Stocks for 2025 and Beyond for investors to buy now… and Barrick Gold wasn’t one of them. The Top Stocks that made the cut could potentially produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider MercadoLibre, which we first recommended on January 8, 2014 ... if you invested $1,000 in the “eBay of Latin America” at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $20,697.16!*

Stock Advisor Canada provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month – one from Canada and one from the U.S. The Stock Advisor Canada service has outperformed the return of S&P/TSX Composite Index by 29 percentage points since 2013*.

See the Top Stocks * Returns as of 3/20/25

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Confidently Navigate Market Volatility: Claim Your Free Report!

Feeling uneasy about the ups and downs of the stock market lately? You’re not alone. At The Motley Fool Canada, we get it — and we’re here to help. We’ve crafted an essential guide designed to help you through these uncertain times: "5-Step Checklist: How to Prepare Your Portfolio for Volatility."

Don't miss out on this opportunity for peace of mind. Just click below to learn how to receive your complimentary report today!

Get Our Free Report Today

More on Investing

The TFSA is a powerful savings vehicle for Canadians who are saving for retirement.
Retirement

Top Canadian Value Stocks I’d Hold in My TFSA for the Next Decade

These Canadian value stocks have significant growth potential and will enhance your TFSA portfolio’s return in the long run.

Read more »

Canada national flag waving in wind on clear day
Dividend Stocks

The Best Canadian Stocks to Buy Right Away With $30,000

If you have $30,000 you're willing to invest, these are some of the first Canadian stocks to consider on your…

Read more »

rail train
Dividend Stocks

What to Know About Canadian Pacific Railway Stock for 2025

CP stock has now gone through a major merger, so what do investors have to look forward to?

Read more »

ways to boost income
Dividend Stocks

Top Canadian Value Stocks I’d Buy for Dividend Growth and Appreciation

If you are looking for income and capital appreciation, here are three Canadian value stocks for a great total return…

Read more »

coins jump into piggy bank
Dividend Stocks

The Smartest Canadian Stock to Buy With $2,000 Right Now

The company’s powerful combination of growth, income, and value, positions it well to deliver solid returns, making it a smart…

Read more »

Transparent umbrella under heavy rain against water drops splash background. Rainy weather concept.
Dividend Stocks

This 10.6 Percent Dividend Stock Pays Cash Every Single Month

Are you looking to invest for a rainy day? This 10.6% dividend stock pays cash every month, irrespective of the…

Read more »

money goes up and down in balance
Retirement

Where I’d Invest $10,000 in Canadian Value Stocks for Long-term Growth

Suncor Energy Inc (TSX:SU) is a quality Canadian value stock.

Read more »

A worker gives a business presentation.
Dividend Stocks

Market Dip: Opportunity or Risk This April?

This market dip might have investors worried, but should they be excited instead?

Read more »