At the end of the day, there are only two factors that drive a stock to rise—earnings growth and multiple expansions. As a company grows its earnings, a stock will generally rise (assuming the stock price stays at the same multiple of earnings). A stock can also grow if the market either has greater earnings expectations for a company or somehow prefers it over others, which can lead to current earnings being valued at a higher multiple.
This leads to an important question—what drives earnings? One major driver is revenue growth, and a company grows revenues by taking market share and/or participating in a growing market place. A best-in-class name in a rapidly growing market is therefore a recipe for major revenue and earnings growth.
This is why purchasing names in growing industries and markets can be a huge edge, and investors unsure of this can take a look at Enbridge Inc. (TSX:ENB)(NYSE:ENB). Enbridge is benefiting from a roughly 20-year trend that will see oil sands production grow from 0.66 million barrels per day in 2001 to an expected 3.2 million by 2020. Enbridge shares increased eight times as a result from the year 2000.
Here are some of the big long-term trends going forward and how to play them.
1. TransCanada Corporation is set to benefit from natural gas-demand growth
BP estimates that global GDP will double by 2035 and, as a result, demand for energy is set to grow by 34% over this time frame. Most of this growth comes from power generation, and this in turn will make natural gas the fastest-growing fossil fuel from now until 2035.
Natural gas demand is expected to grow by 1.8% annually, well above oil at 0.9% annually and coal at 0.5% annually. The end result is that by 2035, natural gas will be the only fossil fuel that sees its market share expand, and by 2035 gas will overtake coal in market share.
This is occurring as many nations are converting coal plants to natural gas plants, which are less carbon intensive. This demand growth will lead to a large increase in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as gas-rich countries like the U.S. become net exporters, and Europe and China become increasingly dependent on imports.
Growth in LNG supply and natural gas-demand growth will require infrastructure and, in North America, TransCanada Corporation (TSX:TRP)(NYSE:TRP) is set to benefit from this trend because it’s one of the largest natural gas infrastructure networks.
TransCanada’s proposed Coastal Gaslink and PRGT pipelines are set to supply gas to proposed LNG-export facilities on the coast of B.C. In addition, TransCanada has a rapidly expanding network in Mexico, which positions it to profit from Mexico’s growing need for natural gas. And TransCanada’s recent purchase of Columbia Pipeline Group positions it in the key Marcellus and Utica shale regions.
2. DH Corp.
Stepping away from commodities, a massive new trend in the banking industry is the increasing use of technology and, more importantly, the emergence of thousands of small start-ups that are threatening to disrupt the banking industry with high-tech, low-cost customer-focused apps and solutions.
Canada alone is now home to 80 FinTech firms (that offer everything from robo-advisory to lending solutions), and over $1 billion in capital has been attracted to this space since 2010 (and the U.S. saw $14 billion invested in this space in 2014 alone). These names are looking to take market share from banks.
The end result is that banks need to invest heavily in technology, and FinTech firm DH Corp. (TSX:DH) is set to benefit. Banks are looking to automate and reduce costs, and DH provides lending technology solutions, payment solutions, and regulation compliance solutions that can help banks compete better.
With bank IT spending growing rapidly, DH is an excellent way to play the global FinTech trend.
