Checklist: 4 Variables to Help us Find a Winning Stock

Here’s a checklist to ensure superior stock selection. CGI Group Inc. (TSX:GIB.A)(NYSE:GIB) is among top stocks that rank favourably.

win

Sometimes, with all the hype that surrounds the market and certain stocks, it’s hard to know what to focus on when looking for a good buy for our investment portfolios.

So, let’s take a step back and go through a checklist of very important variables to look at when considering and evaluating a stock. While there are also many qualitative factors to look at, this checklist is a great starting point.

Strong and growing free cash flow generation

Earnings can be misleading, as they are affected by many non-cash items, such as depreciation, amortization, and depletion, all of which can be subjective to a degree because they depend on assumptions, and this can lead to manipulation by management.

There is less room for manipulation with cash flows, so investors should start there when evaluating a company. But more than this, we need to consider the capital investment that goes into a business as well. This brings us to free cash flow, which is defined as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.

CGI Group Inc. (TSX: GIB.A)(NYSE: GIB) is a good example of a company that has generated plenty of free cash flow in the last five years. In 2017, CGI generated free cash flow of $1 billion, which is more than double the company’s free cash flow in 2013.

This cash flow has served to improve the company’s balance sheet and fund growth via organic methods and various acquisitions over the years.

By contrast, negative free cash flow is a warning sign because it basically means that the company is spending too much money to generate those earnings. This is not sustainable.

Strong balance sheet/manageable debt levels

We all know that in our personal financial lives, too much debt is risky. The same goes for companies. Every individual and every company must have room and flexibility in their balance sheets to cover the hard times and ensure sustainability. Appropriate debt levels depend on the industry that a company is in, because some industries are, by their very nature, more capital intensive.

In 2015, Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc. (TSX:VRX)(NYSE:VRX) was on a path that was dangerous, even though the stock price was flying high at over $300 per share. The company was embarking on its aggressive acquisition strategy that even a debt-to-capital ratio of 70% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of over six times could not stop.

Fast forward to today, the stock is trading under $25, and the company has been embarking on an aggressive divestiture program to stay afloat.

Reasonable valuations

Generally, we should stay away from those companies that are priced for perfection. High valuations make the risk-versus-reward dynamic of a stock less attractive. The higher the valuation on a stock, the higher the growth rate that the company must maintain to support the stock price.

Canopy Growth Corp. (TSX: WEED) has a three-month return of -18.1%.

It is clear that Canopy is in a very promising and lucrative business, but the valuation is definitely one problem with the stock, which is trading at 73 times price to sales.

High shareholder returns

A company that is focused on shareholder returns is aligned with your interests. Look out for companies that are growing simply for the sake of growing and companies that are making decisions that are too short-term oriented.

Companies that have consistently high returns on equity are generating real value that investors can hang their hats on.

Fool contributor Karen Thomas owns shares of CGI GROUP INC CL A SV. Tom Gardner owns shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool owns shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals. CGI Group is a recommendation of Stock Advisor Canada.

More on Tech Stocks

atomic particle
Tech Stocks

Constellation Software in a TFSA: Great Business, but Is the Price Right?

Constellation’s acquisition engine appeals, while a cash-flow valuation check argues for patience.

Read more »

Close up of an egg in a nest of twigs on grass with RRSP written on it symbolizing a RRSP contribution.
Dividend Stocks

The RRSP Deadline Is in March: Why Starting in November Gives You the Advantage

Many investors hold stocks like Shopify Inc (TSX:SHOP) in their RRSPs.

Read more »

man studies at computer
Dividend Stocks

Here Are The 3 Canadian Stocks I’d Tell a New Investor to Buy ASAP

Discover strategies for investing in stocks that can help you thrive in a market filled with volatility and uncertainty.

Read more »

Canada Day fireworks over two Adirondack chairs on the wooden dock in Ontario, Canada
Dividend Stocks

Where to Invest Your $7,000 TFSA Contribution Before 2026 Is Over

Put your $7,000 TFSA contribution to work before 2026 ends. Explore BMO, CN and Constellation Software for income and long-term…

Read more »

moving into apartment
Tech Stocks

Your TFSA Contribution Room Could Be Larger Than You Think

Shopify Inc (TSX:SHOP) stock has delivered large returns. Those who cashed out TFSA SHOP positions may have more room than…

Read more »

woman relaxes with phone
Dividend Stocks

BCE Cut its Dividend: Has the Stock Become a Better Income Investment?

BCE’s new payment offers income, but cash after spending still has to support the recovery.

Read more »

A chip in a circuit board says "AI"
Tech Stocks

Celestica Stock: Is AI Growth Worth the Risk in a Retirement Portfolio?

Celestica offers retirement growth potential, with a cash-flow trade-off that deserves more attention than sales alone.

Read more »

A person's hand cupped open with a hologram of an AI chatbot above saying Hi, can I help you
Tech Stocks

CGI vs. OpenText: Which Canadian Tech Stock Offers the Better Long-Term Case?

CGI gets my long-term preference, while OpenText offers a recovery case that still needs stronger sales.

Read more »