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How the Election Affects Your TFSA Stock Portfolio

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The election results are in: Justin Trudeau will be the incumbent prime minister in Canada. Although the Liberal party will remain in control of the prime minister’s seat, the Conservative party will take control over the house.

Canada is a parliamentary democracy, which means that it needs to maintain a plurality of votes to retain the seat of the prime minister — not a majority. A plurality vote means that the candidate who wins needs to achieve more votes than the other candidates. A majority means that the winning candidate needs to gain the support of over 50% of the population.

The Liberals won the plurality of the federal vote and will now take control over the seat of the prime minister. Despite this federal win, the Liberals have lost some parliamentary seats while the conservatives gained the most net chairs.


Justin Trudeau’s win will affect the privacy of your financial information. The incumbent prime minister is a supporter of Statistics Canada’s decision to compile banking information to analyze Canadian spending habits and consumer trends.

Trudeau believes that the data will benefit the Canadian government’s policy approach. Critics of the data sharing note that the Canadian government has a history of disrespecting the privacy of its citizens. Instead, these critics advocate for improved privacy rights.


Energy shares opened lower on the Toronto Stock Exchange after the election. The energy sector is seen as weaker post-election. A reduction in Liberal party seats do not favour new oil pipelines.

Trudeau values the potential of Canada’s energy industry to bring in profits, including the Trans Mountain Pipeline. The energy sector continues to struggle from high costs, low margins, and noncompetitive prices relative to other oil-producing countries.


All parties are in support of marijuana legalization for unique reasons. Justin Trudeau was an original champion of marijuana legalization. It is unlikely that the political party in power will influence marijuana laws.

Members of the Bloc Québécois were more concerned about cannabis legalization and released the following statement:

“With the legalization … it creates a brand new market and [it] is a market that is currently occupied by criminal organizations. The choice we have, do we want it to go from criminal organizations to private firms, big corporations, or if we want these profits to go from criminal organizations to all citizens?”

There is a true risk of criminal organizations rejoicing at the legalization of marijuana and setting up shop as legal businesses. After the CannTrust scandal, this concern is even more salient. Health Canada found secret grow rooms in CannTrust facilities leading to the discharge of the CEO Peter Aceto.

Andrew Scheer is the only member of the Conservative party who voted against legalizing marijuana. All New Democrats supported marijuana legalization and criminal record forgiveness for violent marijuana-related offenses. Likewise, the Green Party supports the legalization of all drugs.

Foolish takeaway

Canadian investors should be aware of how this election affects their retirement portfolios. Politics greatly influences the stock market. This election among future polling will likely impact your chances at a happy retirement.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Debra Ray has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

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