It’s the big question. Shares of Shopify (TSX:SHOP) are far and away from their all-time highs of $228 and even lower than 52-week highs this year. That being said, the tech stock has been climbing once again, most recently after a “Buy” upgrade from Bank of America.
In fact, shares surged over 7% from the news. So, now up 50% from 52-week lows, is Shopify stock back to being a buy?
The problems
While Shopify has demonstrated strong historical growth and innovation, several factors warrant caution for potential investors. Mixed analyst ratings, competitive pressures, economic challenges, and high valuation levels all contribute to the risks associated with investing in Shopify at this time.
While Shopify has shown impressive growth in past years, its recent earnings reports indicate potential challenges. For instance, the company forecasted slower sales growth and a decline in gross margins for the upcoming quarters. This outlook has caused concern among investors and analysts, leading to a notable drop in the stock price following earnings releases.
Global economic conditions, particularly in key markets like the U.S. and Europe, present significant risks. Economic downturns or softening growth in these regions can reduce spending by small- and medium-sized businesses, which are Shopify’s primary customers. Moreover, evolving privacy laws, data localization requirements, and other regulations can add compliance costs and operational complexities.
All this leads to valuation concerns. Shopify’s current valuation remains high relative to its earnings. The stock’s price-to-earnings ratio indicates that much of the future growth is already priced in, leaving little room for error. Any slowdown in growth or failure to meet high market expectations could lead to significant stock price corrections.
The promise
With its strong financial performance, positive analyst ratings, strategic focus on core business areas, and significant growth potential, Shopify presents a compelling investment opportunity. The company’s innovative approach and market leadership further bolster the case for buying Shopify stock on the TSX.
In particular, Shopify has demonstrated robust financial growth over the past year. In 2023, the company reported a 28% increase in gross profit, reaching US$3.5 billion, and turned its free cash flow from a negative US$186 million to a positive US$905 million. This financial turnaround underscores Shopify’s ability to generate significant cash flow and improve its profitability.
Shopify’s strategic moves, such as divesting its logistics business to focus on its core e-commerce platform, have positively impacted its margins and operational efficiency. Additionally, Shopify’s integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into its platform is seen as a significant growth driver, enhancing the overall merchant and customer experience. This focus on innovation helps Shopify maintain its competitive edge in the e-commerce industry.
In fact, analysts remain bullish on Shopify. The stock has received numerous upgrades and positive ratings from prominent financial institutions. For example, Bank of America upgraded the stock from US$78 to US$83, raising it to “buy” from “neutral.” This comes from the belief that revenue growth and its disciplined approach will see margin improvements ahead.
Bottom line
So, is Shopify stock a buy? As mentioned, the company’s newly found disciplined approach is certainly promising. And this should further margin improvements. But the proof will need to be viewed during earnings. So, keep this stock on your watchlist and see what happens next.
