The Canadian stock market is riding high (and hot) going into the summer season. With inflation cooling down in the hot summer sun, we may be in for another rate cut (or two) at some point in the second half. Indeed, speculating on when the next round of rate cuts will come tends to be less useful for longer-term investors seeking to unearth the best value bets in the market right now.
Indeed, the macro picture can play a huge role in where stocks head from here. However, by taking a top-down approach, you may miss the low-cost opportunities that most others don’t see. Indeed, a bottom-up approach can make more sense if you consider yourself more of a value investor.
Furthermore, even if you’re spot-on about the macro projection and can project exactly when the Bank of Canada (or Federal Reserve in the U.S.) will move next, you may not gain all that much of an edge since so many pundits and economists are playing that same game.
Undoubtedly, economists may not be the best investors on Earth. So, with that in mind, let’s look at two individual businesses that seem well-equipped to do well, regardless of how many more months we’ll have to wait for the Bank of Canada to dole out its second interest rate cut.
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Restaurant Brands International
First, we have fast-food icon Restaurant Brands International (TSX: QSR), which had a pretty rough spring season, with shares now down around 3.4% year to date. Despite the weak first half, I view Restaurant Brands as one of those companies that’s fundamentally transformed for the better in recent years. Despite making smart investments in growth, modernization, and innovation, Restaurant Brands still faces stiff industry headwinds.
Most notably, the fast-food scene is backtracking on price hikes after some went a tad too far when they passed higher costs onto consumers. Food price inflation is on the downtrend, pushing many consumers to eat from home. In due time, I do believe that things will normalize and consumers will be right back to eating at their favourite fast-food joints again. Arguably, Burger King and Tim Hortons have done a great job of providing solid value menus amid inflation.
As industry headwinds subside, I view QSR stock as a top fast-food breakout candidate. At just 18.7 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), the firm behind Burger King and Tim Hortons looks like an undervalued bargain hiding in plain sight. Oh, and let’s not forget about that 3.2% dividend yield, which is head and shoulders above some peers in the restaurant scene!
TD Bank
TD Bank (TSX: TD) had an awful start to the year, but the tides could shift in a huge way in the back half of the year as we look past the money-laundering crisis. Though we don’t understand the full extent of the punishment to be dealt out by regulators quite yet, I do see the money-laundering troubles as old news. And with the stock trading at absurdly low levels ($78 and change today), I find value investors have a lot to love about the wonderful Canadian bank as it looks to put the rail car back on the tracks.
Shares trade at 13.1 times trailing P/E to go with a massive 5.3% dividend yield. Are there problems over at TD Bank? Definitely. Are they fixable? They most definitely are. As the Canadian economy heats up in the second half, perhaps TD stock could prove one of the biggest deep-value plays in the financial scene today. As far as I’m concerned, TD stock is the best bank for your buck this July.
