Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks

If you are looking to buy some energy stocks now or next year, it’s essential to consider the oil price movement and prospects.

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The current year hasn’t been great for oil prices. They experienced a climb in the first few months of the year, but since then, it has mostly been a downward slump. The current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is about US$15 lower compared to its five-year peak. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has cut its original outlook for 2025 by US$6.5 per barrel. Even though the estimated price is higher than the current WTI price per barrel, it doesn’t look very promising.

Even more troubling is the forecast about lower oil demand. Geopolitical variables may also influence the price. Some can push the price down further, while others may push it well beyond the estimates.

A wild card variable is any breakthrough in battery technology or hydrogen, which makes zero-emission vehicles more financially feasible and practical — something like that can decimate oil demand, at least for a while.

With that in mind, it’s prudent to be careful with your choices for the energy stocks.

A midstream stock

Enbridge (TSX:ENB) is not just Canada’s midstream giant but one of the largest pipeline companies in the world. It’s also rapidly growing its natural gas utility businesses, which further solidifies its overall business model. This makes its revenues quite stable and less vulnerable to price fluctuations than upstream or even downstream businesses. This, in turn, makes its dividends more financially stable and reliable.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Enbridge PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.ca

The business model, dividend sustainability, and stellar dividend history (29 consecutive years of dividend growth) collectively make Enbridge one of the safest stocks you can buy in this oil price uncertainty environment. The 6.1% dividend yield is also a compelling reason to buy this stock.

While growth/capital appreciation potential isn’t a strong suit for this stock, it is quite bullish right now. It has grown 19% in the last six months. In contrast, the TSX Energy Index slipped about 5% over the same period. This further endorses Enbridge’s ability to remain resilient even when the rest of the sector is weak.

An upstream stock

Parex Resources (TSX:PXT) is currently one of the most heavily discounted energy stocks in Canada, which is surprising since most upstream stocks enjoyed a solid bull market phase while this stock slipped.

Even though it’s turning things around, it’s still trading at a 48% discount from its five-year peak. Despite a weak oil price outlook, this discount and its undervaluation are among the most compelling reasons to buy this stock.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Parex Resources PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.ca

Another reason is the incredibly high dividend yield. The company is currently paying dividends at a yield of about 10.3%, and the payout ratio of 44% is rock solid, making its dividends highly desirable. If the company starts recovering from its current fall, you might also get returns from its growth.

Foolish takeaway

The energy sector is going through a rough phase around the globe. Part of it is the worldwide switch to renewables. Geo-political factors like tensions involving major oil producers and importers and leadership changes can also exacerbate the situation. With this many concerning variables in the equation, stocks like Enbridge and Parex may be healthy picks for a wide range of investors.

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This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Adam Othman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Enbridge and Parex Resources. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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