After delivering an impressive 42% gain in 2024, TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has started 2025 on a weaker note, slipping 5% year to date. By comparison, the TSX Composite Index has risen 2.4% so far this year. Despite this short-term weakness, TC Energy remains a dominant player in the North American energy sector, supported by a strong asset base and reliable cash flows. Following the spinoff of its liquids pipelines business in October 2024, the company is now fully focused on natural gas infrastructure, power generation, and energy solutions.
Currently trading at $63.69 per share with a market cap of $66.2 billion, TRP stock also offers an attractive 5.4% dividend yield, making it a compelling option for income-focused investors. However, the big question for many investors is whether TC Energy can continue delivering strong returns in 2025 and beyond. Let’s take a deep dive into its future growth prospects and 2025 outlook.
What’s behind TC Energy stock’s recent weakness?
TC Energy stock may have started 2025 on a weaker note, but that doesn’t affect its long-term potential. The recent dip could largely be attributed to volatile commodity prices, macroeconomic uncertainties, and rising geopolitical tensions, all of which have made Canadian energy stocks more unpredictable.
Many investors also seemed cautious after the company’s late 2024 spin-off of its liquids pipelines business as South Bow, a move that might have initially created uncertainty as investors adjusted to the company’s new structure.
Strong financial performance amid market noise
Even with the recent volatility in TRP stock, its numbers tell a different story. The company wrapped up 2024 with comparable EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $10 billion, marking a 6% YoY (year-over-year) increase. TC Energy also posted a solid 57% YoY jump in its annual segmented earnings last year to $8 billion.
Another big achievement for the company in the latest quarter was the mechanical completion of its Southeast Gateway pipeline, which was completed 13% under budget. This project is expected to be a game-changer as it strengthens TC Energy’s position in Mexico by meeting growing natural gas demand once it goes live in May 2025.
TRP stock’s outlook for 2025 and beyond
Investors looking for stability should also note that 97% of TC Energy’s EBITDA is supported by long-term contracts or regulated frameworks, which minimizes its exposure to commodity price swings.
Meanwhile, the company continues to expand its natural gas footprint across North America, with new projects like the Pulaski and Maysville expansions in the United States. In Canada, TC Energy’s NGTL System deliveries just hit a record 17.7 billion cubic feet per day in early February, reflecting the growing demand for natural gas.
And let’s not forget about its reliable dividends. Interestingly, TC Energy recently increased its payout by 3.3% YoY, marking 25 straight years of dividend hikes. At the end of the day, while short-term pressures may weigh on TC Energy’s share price in early 2025, the company’s steady cash flow, major infrastructure projects, and consistent dividend growth make it an attractive bet for the long run.
