Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) has long been a staple in Canadian investment portfolios, known for its stability, consistent dividends, and significant presence in both Canada and the United States. As 2025 unfolds, many investors are wondering whether the current environment makes TD stock a buy, sell, or hold. Recent earnings, market conditions, and regulatory challenges have all played a role in shaping the bank’s outlook, making it essential to dig deeper before making any decisions.
The numbers
As of writing, TD stock currently boasts a market capitalization of approximately $148.13 billion, with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.93 and a forward P/E of 10.91. This forward valuation suggests that analysts expect stronger earnings growth in the coming quarters. This could be promising for investors looking for value.
TD Bank’s fiscal year ended on Oct. 31, 2024, and the results were generally positive. TD stock reported a total revenue of $53.24 billion, with net income attributable to common shareholders reaching $8.32 billion. This resulted in a profit margin of 16.61%, a solid figure for a large financial institution. Year over year, TD stock saw quarterly revenue growth of 5.3%, while quarterly earnings growth soared by 26.8%, underscoring the bank’s ability to grow its bottom line even in a challenging economic environment. These numbers reflect TD stock’s strong core banking business, supported by its diversified operations across personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets.
Some problems
However, it’s impossible to ignore the regulatory headwinds TD stock faced in late 2024. The bank agreed to pay a staggering US$3.09 billion fine to U.S. authorities after failing to address anti-money laundering controls adequately. This penalty, the largest ever imposed under the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act, also came with restrictions on TD stock’s ability to accept new U.S. deposits. While TD stock has since taken steps to tighten its compliance framework, the incident raised concerns about the bank’s risk management practices and its long-term growth prospects in the U.S. market. Given that TD generates a significant portion of its revenue from its American operations, any limitations on future growth south of the border could weigh on earnings.
Despite the recent fine and operational hurdles, TD stock remains fundamentally strong. Its balance sheet continues to reflect stability, with total cash holdings of $635.31 billion and a book value per share of $63.41. The bank’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 7.78%, which, while lower than some peers, remains respectable given the current market conditions. TD’s efficiency ratio also highlights its ability to manage expenses while driving revenue growth, further reinforcing the case for long-term stability.
Is income worth it?
One of the most compelling reasons to hold TD stock is its consistent and attractive dividend. The forward annual dividend rate currently stands at $4.20 per share, representing a yield of approximately 4.96% at writing. This yield is not only higher than the bank’s five-year average of 4.38% but also appealing compared to other income-generating investments in today’s market. With a payout ratio of 86.44%, TD stock’s dividend appears sustainable, provided the bank can maintain its current earnings trajectory.
From a broader perspective, TD stock’s future will likely hinge on its ability to adapt to evolving regulatory requirements while maintaining its competitive position in both Canada and the United States. The bank’s digital transformation initiatives, continued expansion in wealth management, and focus on cost control could support future growth. Moreover, the overall strength of the Canadian economy and stable interest rate environment should provide a tailwind for TD’s core lending and deposit businesses.
Bottom line
Ultimately, the decision to buy, sell, or hold TD stock in 2025 depends on your investment goals and risk tolerance. For conservative, income-focused investors, TD’s strong dividend yield and stable balance sheet make it a solid hold. For those looking for growth, the current valuation might present a buying opportunity if the bank can demonstrate resilience in the face of regulatory challenges. However, more risk-averse investors might prefer to wait until the upcoming earnings release provides greater clarity. As always, keeping an eye on future developments and maintaining a diversified portfolio remains the best approach in navigating today’s complex market.
